Reuters – Germany believes euro zone could cope with Greece exit – report The German government believes that the euro zone would now be able to cope with a Greece exit if that proved to be necessary, Der Spiegel news magazine reported on Saturday, citing unnamed government sources. Both Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister… Continue reading Germany Readying For GRexit?
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Dollar Surges to 11-Year High Against Biggest Rivals Greenback Propelled by Expectations the Federal Reserve Will Increase Rates Investors snapped up dollars, pushing the greenback to its highest level against major currencies since September 2003, as they ramped up bets the U.S. economy will… Continue reading The Rising Dollar
Reuters – Pimco Total Return Fund posts 20th month of strong outflows The Pimco Total Return Fund posted its 20th straight month of outflows in December, totaling $19.4 billion, compared with $9.5 billion of withdrawals the previous month, according to a statement by Pacific Investment Management on Friday. As of the end of December, the… Continue reading Fund Flows Continue Trending Towards Passive Management
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Why Gas Feels Cheap—and Why It’s Not, Historically Speaking Recent Price Plunge Looks Good After Years of High Costs, but Fill-Ups Were Less Expensive From 1986-2003 U.S. gasoline prices are the lowest they’ve been in five years. And they feel even cheaper because they… Continue reading A Historical Look At Gas Prices
The Financial Times – Economists sceptical ECB bond-buying would revive eurozone Any effort by the European Central Bank to launch a massive quantitative easing programme this year would fail to revive the eurozone economy, according to economists polled in a Financial Times survey. The FT survey of 32 eurozone economists, mainly working in the financial… Continue reading What’s The ECB To Do?
Barron’s – Jeffrey Gundlach’s Surprising Forecast The bond titan thinks the 10-year could potentially take out its modern-era low of 1.38% Per usual, Gundlach has an idiosyncratic view of where markets are headed in 2015. Like virtually everyone, he expects the Federal Reserve to begin raising the federal-funds rate this year, but he predicts that… Continue reading Gundlach Looks For Lower 10-Year Rates In 2015
Barron’s – A Contrarian View of Emerging Markets An interview with Brian Singer, head of dynamic allocation strategies at William Blair in Chicago. The vast majority of mutual fund managers are bottom-up stock or bond pickers. While they pay attention to macroeconomics, it isn’t their focus. Brian Singer, co-manager of the William Blair Macro Allocation… Continue reading Emerging Markets
The Wall Street Journal – James Grant: The Depression That Was Fixed by Doing Nothing The often forgotten 1920-21 economic crisis suggests that sometimes the best stimulus is none at all. Beginning in January 1920, something much worse than a recession blighted the world. The U.S. suffered the steepest plunge in wholesale prices in its… Continue reading Fixing A Crisis By Doing Nothing
The New York Times – The Economics (and Nostalgia) of Dead Malls Premature obituaries for the shopping mall have been appearing since the late 1990s, but the reality today is more nuanced, reflecting broader trends remaking the American economy. With income inequality continuing to widen, high-end malls are thriving, even as stolid retail chains like… Continue reading Malls In The U.S. Are Still Struggling
None Today
The 5-Year Total Return Treasury Index and Bank Holdings of U.S. Government Securities The 5-Year Total Return Treasury Index and Bank Holdings of U.S. Government Securities Maturity Breakdown of Treasury and Agency Debt Held By Large Domestic Banks Year-over-year Change in Total Loans and Government Securities Holdings Year-over-year Change in Total Loans Government Securities Owned… Continue reading Untitled
Barron’s – Ben Levisohn: What If Rates Finally Rise? Since 1955, stock valuations fell during initial rate hikes and mostly continued until the Fed finished the job. STILL, THERE’S ANOTHER WAY to look at the market—by considering the valuation of the median or “typical” stock. And that tells a far different story. The median stock… Continue reading What Happens To Stocks If The Fed Hikes? Depends Who You Ask