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February 5, 2024
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Employment in Pictures – Big Beat Hurts Case for March Rate Cut
February 2, 2024
Payrolls beat even the highest estimate in Bloomberg's survey of economists. Revisions to past months were also the highest in a couple years. As a result, traders now see a March rate cut as unlikely.
Financial News
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
February 2, 2024
Today's topics include what's happening in commercial real estate?, El-Erian says Fed has a messaging problem, money market funds cross the $6t mark, deciphering what's ahead for markets, dot-com era comparison getting stronger, regional bank concerns, finding solutions to Red Sea shipping issues, bond market drawdown, and AI & market efficiency.
Humor
Cartoons
February 2, 2024
Markets
Dividend Yields Can No Longer Compete With Treasuries
February 2, 2024
Through much of the QE era, dividend yields outpaced T-bill yields. This has not been true over the last year and a half, however.
Markets
The Euro Turns 25
February 2, 2024
The euro turned 25 on January 1. Where does it now stand in terms of a global currency?
Markets
The Government’s Rising Debt Burden
February 2, 2024
For the last few decades we have been in a low interest rate environment where deficit spending would not cause major issues. However, a 40-year high in inflation prompted the Fed to tighten monetary policy at a fast pace. Higher rates mean the cost of servicing U.S. debt will follow higher.
Stocks
How Have Cathie Wood’s ARK Funds Done Recently?
February 2, 2024
We have argued in the past that Cathie Wood and the ARK ETFs, headlined by ARK Innovation (ARKK), were arguably the most important manager/complex on Wall Street. After their outstanding performance in 2020, these funds have drastically underperformed.
Markets
The Fed’s Footprint as QT Nears Its End
February 2, 2024
How big are the Fed's holdings of bonds, notes, bills, TIPS, MBS, agencies, and FRNs in relation the outstanding market?
Long Term Charts
A Long-Term Look at Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate
February 2, 2024
A long-term look at the dollar/pound exchange rate
Weekly Digest
Weekly Research Recap
February 2, 2024
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
Data Reports
Monthly Fund Flows – Cash Continues Piling Into Money Market Funds
February 1, 2024
Money continues to flow into money market funds. Banks are left with the option of raising deposit rates, which squeezes margins, or watching customers walk out the door.