Today's topics include the Fed is still in wait & see mode, the Fed's inflation target, the market vs. the Fed, understanding Fedspeak, the Fed's paper losses, the dollar as the world's reserve currency, some thoughts on volatility over the long run, and consumer concerns
Year-over-year inflation came in below expectations in May. Supercore inflation, a measure closely watched by the Fed, fell for the first time in seven months. The markets have now put the September meeting back in play, pricing in almost 70% odds of a cut at that FOMC meeting.
Today's topics include attempting to project the Fed's path, long bond wagers lose traction pre-FOMC, more on momentum trading in 2024, are higher rates necessary?, forecasting an oil glut, defending the Euro, the persistence of work from home & its impact, private equity could struggle for returns in higher for longer environment, synthetic risk transfers...where hidden threats lie, and China's inflation measures hold steady
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, Timiraos offers thoughts on FOMC meeting, the odds of rate cuts heading into tomorrow's CPI release, quantifying rate cuts across the globe, using ChatGPT to beat the market, post-pandemic productivity, small business optimism, and Russian oil
Today's topics include more on Friday's jobs report, bond market volatility, the wealth effect keeps recession at bay, synchronized global monetary policy, inflation sentiment & the target rate, central bank policy as elections draw near, signs of volatility beyond the VIX, previewing this week's FOMC meeting, your daily story on stock market concentration, and the housing market
This morning's payroll number beat estimates of around 185k. This marks 24 of the last 29 months that the initial payroll release has beaten Wall Street estimates.
Today's topics include impact of diverging central banks, food inflation, zombie companies, what do rate cuts mean?, Nvidia stock splits monday, retail investors & real estate investments, bond flows, highlighting risks in private equity space, watching a mania unfold...again, and Bitcoin approaching fresh record