<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Yellen Confronts Economists’ Ignorance Most policy makers on the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee agree with Fernald and estimate the long-run annual growth rate of gross domestic product at 2 percent to 2.3 percent, according to projections released on Dec. 17. History shows how important it… Continue reading Potential GDP
Watch the latest video at video.foxbusiness.com Comment Jim Bianco was on Fox Business yesterday discussing the Fed, the markets and the outlook for the rest of 2015. To view the interview, click on the image above. To view any of our recent interviews, click here. Real-Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Jon Hilsenrath: NY Fed Survey… Continue reading The Fed, Markets And The Rest of 2015
Comment The blue line in the first chart below shows total assets in investment grade ETFs. The blue line in the second chart below shows total assets in high yield ETFs. These are good proxies for investment flows. The red line in each chart shows the respective BofA OAS spread plotted inversely, a proxy for… Continue reading Money Rushing Into Credit ETFs
Comment In the four charts below, holdings of each respective metal are shown in blue and the spot price of each metal is shown in red. Note that gold holdings are down substantially, reflecting investors withdrawing funds from gold ETFs. This is not surprising given the spot price (red) is down substantially as well. Flows… Continue reading Metal ETFs Update
Foreign Policy – Phillippe Legrain: Greece Should Not Give In to Germany’s Bullying It’s not just a question of being morally right — it’s sound economics. And Athens has a lot more leverage than anyone thinks. Let’s face it: no advanced economies in living memory have been as catastrophically mismanaged as the eurozone has been… Continue reading Is Greece Right?
The Financial Times – Alan Greenspan: Opec has ceded to the US its power over oil price Shale breakthrough will be a more effective market stabiliser N ormal diplomacy probably could not have achieved the geopolitical outcomes that have been produced in the past year by America’s shale oil revolution. Oil prices have more than… Continue reading Alan Greenspan Speaks
CNBC – Byron Wien calls for ‘surprise’ market rally Stocks have risen less than 2 percent since the start of the year, but Byron Wien is holding out hope. The well-known vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, Wien predicted in the beginning of the year that the “the market rises for strong performance in 2015,”… Continue reading Is A Stock Market Rally Imminent?
The Wall Street Journal – Charles W. Calomiris And Peter Ireland: A Muddle of Mixed Messages From the Fed Markets don’t seem to believe the central bank will follow through on its midyear rate hike. Fed leaders suggest that the Federal Open Market Committee will begin raising interest rates as early as midyear and continue… Continue reading The Fed’s Muddled Message
Bloomberg.com – Bubbles ‘Wherever We Look’ Unnerve Top Nordic Buyout Fund he biggest buyout fund in the Nordic region says an unprecedented era of monetary stimulus is inflating asset prices across markets to extreme levels, with history offering little help in predicting how it will all end. “There are financial bubbles being built up and… Continue reading Bubbles Everywhere!
The Wall Street Journal – Wal-Mart’s Raises Reflect Tighter Jobs Market Retailer to boost U.S. employees’ pay to at least $9 an hour this year Wal-Mart ’s pledge to raise pay for half a million U.S. employees reflects a tightening labor market and rising competition for lower-paid workers. It also could amplify gains for low-wage… Continue reading Higher Wages Coming To The World’s Largest Private Sector Employer
The Economist – Deflation: Feeling down Deflation can be a good thing. But today’s version is pernicious FALLING prices sound like something to cheer. In 1950 talk was not cheap. It cost $3.70 to place a five-minute call between New York and San Francisco—or $36.35 in today’s money. Now that same call costs you nothing.… Continue reading Deflation
Bloomberg.com – Japan’s Luxury Sales Are Booming, Even In a Weak Economy The trend reflects rising inequality in the Abenomics era Japan’s economy is hobbling out of a recession, inflation is a quarter of the central bank’s target and wages adjusted for price changes fell last year. And yet sales of luxury goods are growing and the… Continue reading Even In Japan, It’s Good To Be In The 1%