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The Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility
February 23, 2015
<Click on chart for larger image> Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – NY Fed Plumbs Balance Between Reverse Repos, Market Stability A report released on Friday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York highlights the balancing act the central bank faces as it prepares to deploy a new tool it hopes will provide better… Continue reading The Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility
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Crude Oil Supply & Demand
February 23, 2015
The Wall Street Journal – Oil Retreats on U.S. Supply Highs U.S. rig count drops, but concerns about oversupply persist Oil prices fell for a third session in a row, as slowing cuts to rig counts added to losses that had been mounting because of historically high U.S. supplies. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported… Continue reading Crude Oil Supply & Demand
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Earnings Update, Is The Forward P/E Ratio Now Overvalued?
February 23, 2015
<Click on graphic for larger image> Comment During earnings season we update the latest data every Monday. We have shown that earnings and their estimates are not giving a very optimistic view for future growth. As the chart above shows, the forward P/E ratio is now above 17 according to Factset (Bloomberg puts it closer… Continue reading Earnings Update, Is The Forward P/E Ratio Now Overvalued?
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Is The Largest Market Cap Stock (Now Apple) A Good Investment?
February 23, 2015
<Click on table for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Comment Even though Apple’s market cap is at new highs (red line), as a percentage of the S&P 500’s market cap (blue line) it is far from its September 2012 high because it has underperformed the rest of the index. <Click on chart… Continue reading Is The Largest Market Cap Stock (Now Apple) A Good Investment?
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Russia Gets Downgraded
February 23, 2015
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Moody’s downgrades Russia sovereign debt to junk Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Russia’s sovereign debt to junk status on Friday, citing the crisis in Ukraine and the falling price of oil. Moody’s cut Russia’s rating to Ba1 from Baa3, with a negative outlook. “Russia is expected to experience… Continue reading Russia Gets Downgraded
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The Fed’s ‘Patience’
February 23, 2015
The Financial Times – Yellen faces interest rates language test The US Federal Reserve is facing a delicate communications challenge as it discusses ways of weaning investors off its low interest rates message while avoiding a knee-jerk response in financial markets. Chairman Janet Yellen will face an early test on Tuesday when she takes questions… Continue reading The Fed’s ‘Patience’
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Greece – Extend & Pretend
February 23, 2015
The Wall Street Journal – Eurozone Agrees on Four-Month Extension of Greece Bailout Ministers agreed on extending bailout for Greece by four months, under condition that Athens details adequate reforms Greece struck a tenuous agreement for a four-month extension of its bailout Friday, removing immediate concerns over a potential exit from Europe’s currency union but… Continue reading Greece – Extend & Pretend
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1998 Redux?
February 23, 2015
The Financial Times – Do eerie parallels presage new crisis? Mark Twain reputedly stated that history does not repeat but it rhymed. In an eerie parallel to 1997-98, falling commodity — especially oil — prices, a rising US dollar and potential increases in US interest rates may presage a new financial crisis. Weak growth, high… Continue reading 1998 Redux?
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Cartoons
February 23, 2015
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Energy ETFs – Do These Investors Want To Take Losses?
February 20, 2015
The Wall Street Journal – Oil’s Volatility Reflects Debate: Is Worst Over Yet? “ Stockpiles swell but some traders, expecting worse, take it as a cue to buy New evidence of surging U.S. oil supplies sent prices on a roller-coaster ride Thursday, reflecting the growing divide among traders over whether an eight-month rout is over.… Continue reading Energy ETFs – Do These Investors Want To Take Losses?
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Is Economic Data Set To Disappoint Over The Next Several Months?
February 20, 2015
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Treasury Yields Too Low? Check Out Citi Surprise Index Investors who say yields are too low, given what’s happening in the U.S. economy, should look at the Citi Economic Surprise Index. It shows U.S. economic data are failing to meet expectations by the most in 2 1/2… Continue reading Is Economic Data Set To Disappoint Over The Next Several Months?