Comment Last week we examined the West Coast port slowdown. With today’s trade deficit data, we offer an update. Normally trade deficit data closely tracks container shipments, so some economists have made the case that the port slowdown will have a negative effect on GDP. Interestingly, as the next chart shows, a large divergence that… Continue reading West Coast Port Slowdown Update
<Click on graphic for larger image> Factset – Guidance for March 31, 2015 For Q1 2015, 85 companies in the S&P 500 have issued negative EPS guidance and 16 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. If 16 is the final number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance for the quarter, it will mark the lowest… Continue reading The Worst Company Guidance Since The Great Recession Ended
Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Larry Summers to Ben Bernanke: I Hope You’re Right, But… In a blog post Wednesday, Larry Summers responded to Ben Bernanke‘s critique of his view that the U.S. economy faces a period of permanently weaker economic growth known as secular stagnation. Mr. Summers offers a detailed rebuttal that boils… Continue reading Summers Responds To Bernanke
Janus Capital – Bill Gross: March Madness As we all know, the neutral or natural rate of interest is not a new concept. Irving Fisher back in early 20th century hypothesized that while neutral nominal policy rates could go up or down depending on inflation and cyclical growth rates, that the real natural rate of… Continue reading Bill Gross Speaks
Economic Policies 21 – Caroline Baum: No, Low Long-Term Rates Won’t Counter Fed Actions While the Fed has yet to begin its effort to normalize interest rates, already there is talk of a conundrum redux. Long-term yields have tumbled more than 100 basis points since the beginning of 2014 even as the U.S. economy strengthened.… Continue reading The Effects Of Low Long Term Rates
The Financial Times – Value investors suffer during steady QE rally Cheap stocks have an annoying habit of staying cheap these days. The “value” style of investing — buying companies that look cheap relative to their fundamentals, such as earnings, book value or cash flow — is locked into a persistent run of underperformance and… Continue reading Value Investing In A QE World
The Wall Street Journal – Europe’s Low Interest in Investment Sometimes the simplest explanations are the best. A popular theory regarding Europe’s anemic business investment is that the Continent needs to develop more sophisticated credit markets that small firms can tap to fund investment. But perhaps the real reason companies aren’t investing is that they… Continue reading Access To Funds Is Not The Problem
The Society Pages – Lisa Wade PhD: Are Economics Majors Anti-Social? Yep. Economics majors are more anti-social than non-econ majors. And taking econ classes also makes people more anti-social than they were before. It turns out, there’s quite a bit of research on this, nicely summarized here. Econ majors are less likely to share, less generous to the… Continue reading The Anti-Social Economist
The Wall Street Journal – Greece Presents More Detailed Plan For Revising Its Bailout Greece made little headway in negotiations on Wednesday toward ending its standoff with its international creditors, leaving the government facing the prospect of at least another month without new financing and starved for cash. Athens handed over a more detailed plan… Continue reading Greece’s Latest Bailout Plan
The New York Times – Auto Sales Slow After Months of Healthy Growth The auto industry’s breakneck pace of sales growth showed signs of tempering in March, as most automakers reported drops in sales compared with a year ago. General Motors, Ford Motor, Honda and Nissan, among others, ended March in losing territory, while Fiat… Continue reading Auto Sales
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Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Timing The First Rate Hike What The Market Expects The Fed To Do The Strong Dollar And Stocks Everyone Hates The Euro Everyone Hates The Euro – 2 Bond Market Crude Oil Speculation Update Crude Oil Speculation Update – 2 An Updated Look At Gas Prices… Continue reading Charts of the Week