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April 6, 2015
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Employment In Pictures
April 3, 2015
The Wall Street Journal – Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 126,000 Jobs; Unemployment Steady at 5.5% U.S. employers sharply slowed their hiring in March to the weakest pace in more than a year, the latest sign that the economy stumbled during a first quarter that was hampered in part by harsh winter weather. Nonfarm payrolls rose… Continue reading Employment In Pictures
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Retail, Manufacturing And Construction Jobs
April 3, 2015
Comment Over the last month we have noted how job creation was diverging from economic activity. Residential Construction As the next chart shows, February housing starts collapsed (red line). <Click on chart for larger image> Despite the collapse in housing starts, residential construction saw a healthy 17,200 jobs added in February (right most GREEN bar).… Continue reading Retail, Manufacturing And Construction Jobs
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Fed Fund Futures Update – 2015 Hike Now Priced Out
April 3, 2015
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg – Traders Are Now Expecting the Fed to Raise Rates Later Than Ever Before Market expectations are for no rate increases from the Federal Reserve before the last week of November As of Wednesday’s close, Federal funds futures implied liftoff from zero in the final week of November,… Continue reading Fed Fund Futures Update – 2015 Hike Now Priced Out
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Concern Over Earnings Season Is Building
April 3, 2015
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – Buttonwood: Hung, drawn and first-quartered The trend in corporate profits in America is worrying Some investors may be inclined to take a relaxed view of the Fed’s dilemma. After all, if the economy is strong enough to allow the central bank to raise interest rates, that… Continue reading Concern Over Earnings Season Is Building
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The Fed Custody Account Jumps
April 3, 2015
<Click on chart for larger image> Reuters – Central banks boost U.S. Treasuries holdings -Fed data Foreign central banks boosted their U.S. Treasuries ownership in the latest week by a record $62.9 billion, reversing a decline in previous weeks in holdings at the U.S. Federal Reserve, central bank data showed on Thursday. Holdings of foreign… Continue reading The Fed Custody Account Jumps
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Crude Oil Supply
April 3, 2015
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment As we noted on March 16, 2015: The chart below shows total inventories in blue in the top panel, crude oil production in red in the middle panel and crude oil imports in green in the bottom panel. Note the steady increase in production since 2010. This was… Continue reading Crude Oil Supply
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Robert Shiller Struggles To Understand The Stock Market
April 3, 2015
MarketWatch – Why Robert Shiller is calling this U.S. stock market ‘a great enigma’ CAPE ratio is at levels last seen in 2007 Getty Images Robert Shiller is puzzled by this stock market. By AnoraMahmudova Reporter NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Confounded by this wacky stock market? You’re not alone. Robert Shiller, the 69-year-old acclaimed economist… Continue reading Robert Shiller Struggles To Understand The Stock Market
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Pimco Total Return Update
April 3, 2015
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Investors Pull $7.3 Billion From Pimco Total Return Fund in March Pimco’s Total Return clings to title of world’s largest bond mutual fund Vanguard Group will have to wait at least another month before it can claim the world’s largest bond mutual fund. A… Continue reading Pimco Total Return Update
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Repo Squeeze
April 3, 2015
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Pressure in Repo Market Spreads Stresses amplify price swings in government bonds Repos also are an important source of day-to-day funding for banks themselves and independent broker-dealers, making the repo market the central nervous system for many of Wall Street’s securities markets. Traders cite… Continue reading Repo Squeeze
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Cartoons
April 3, 2015
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GDPNow Hits 0%
April 2, 2015
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 0.0 percent on April 1, down from 0.2 percent on March 30. Following this morning’s construction spending release from the U.S. Census… Continue reading GDPNow Hits 0%