<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Falling Fed Forecast The Federal Open Market Committee surprised no one Wednesday by standing pat on monetary policy. But Fed policy makers also stayed true to recent form by again downgrading their economic forecast for 2015. The Fed cut its “central tendency” for annual… Continue reading Lower GDP Projections
Comment The green squares in the Morgan Stanley graphic above offer projections for the Fed’s SEP which will be updated at the meeting later today. MS believes the Fed will lower their projected fed funds rate to 0.375% as of the end of 2015. This is interesting in two aspects. First, as the chart below… Continue reading A Preview Of The Fed’s Summary Of Economic Projections
Bloomberg Business – Fed Decision Day Guide: Interest-Rate Projections, Gradual Pace “Our baseline view is that only two participants join the less-than-two hikers –- implying that the leadership is still at two hikes and a September liftoff,” Feroli wrote in a note to clients. “But there is a non-negligible risk that more than two participants… Continue reading The Fed Decision Is Today
<Click on chart for larger image> Real Time Economics – Some of the Fed’s Dots Will Be More Equal Than Others Chairwoman Janet Yellen signaled that the shift in rate projections reflected actual changes in the Fed’s economic outlook. “Certainly there are changes in the assessments of the economy and forecasts for the economy that… Continue reading What To Look For In The Fed’s Dots
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – HILSENRATH’S TAKE: U.S. PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN LURKS AS WILDCARD ON FED MEETING DAY The Fed has two problems to resolve in assessing the productivity slowdown. The first is determining what is driving it and whether the slowdown will be sustained. Several narratives are at play.… Continue reading Solving The Productivity Problem
Bloomberg Business – Martin Wolf: Divorce Greece in haste, repent at leisure Neither Greeks nor their partners should imagine a clean break if they leaves the euro Greece has also already made significant reforms, including to its pension arrangements and business environment. But backtracking on such reforms would indeed be a huge mistake, as the… Continue reading Greece
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Investing.com – U.S. TIC long term purchases 53.9B vs. 22.5B forecast U.S. TIC long term purchases rose more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Monday. In a report, Department of the Treasury said that U.S. TIC long term purchases rose to a seasonally… Continue reading Chinese And Japanese U.S. Treasury Holdings
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg Business – The World Is Facing Its Longest Oil Glut in at Least Three Decades Oil supply has exceeded demand globally for the past five quarters, already the most enduring glut since the 1997 Asian economic crisis, International Energy Agency data show. If the Organization of Petroleum Exporting… Continue reading The Crude Oil Glut
Of Two Minds – Charles Hugh Smith: What’s the Real Unemployment Rate in the U.S.? Officially, the unemployment rate in the U.S. is 5.6%, meaning 5.6% of the work force is temporarily out of a job and actively seeking another one. This low number reflects nearly full employment, as 3% to 4% of the work… Continue reading The Real Unemployment Rate?
The Financial Times – Martin Sandbu: Free Lunch: US economy remains far below the speed limit Hence the justified interest in labour market indicators, which are as close as we can get to a picture of capacity constraints. The strongest case for an imminent rate rise is the unemployment rate, which at 5.5 per cent… Continue reading Why The Economy Is Growing So Slow
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