<Click on graphic for larger image> Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Inflation Ate the Average Worker’s Raise in May The average U.S. worker got a raise in May. And inflation gobbled it up. Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings fell 0.1% from April, the Labor Department said on Thursday, the latest reminder of paltry wage gains… Continue reading Inflation-Adjusted Hourly Earnings
Bloomberg.com – Greek Default Risk Belied in Markets as Bond Liquidity Dries Up You wouldn’t know from looking at the Greek bond market that the nation may be hurtling toward default. None of the government’s bonds traded publicly last week nor derivatives insuring them, according to data from the Bank of Greece and the Depository… Continue reading Greek Liquidity (Or Lack Thereof)
Press Release Release Date: June 17, 2015 For immediate release The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 100 basis points to 1 percent. While the Committee appreciates the advice of the IMF, it remains fully independent. The Committee believes that, even after this action, the… Continue reading The Alternate Universe FOMC Statement
Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/061915.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Topics Covered This Week Include: Words To Live By What Does The Market Always Think? Talking Hikes June 17, 2015 Dot Chart 2015 Dots Back To March 2014 Sliding Past Summer How Much Does Market Opinion Matter To The Fed? Discounting A September Hike Discounting… Continue reading Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> <Click on graphic for larger image> The Washington Post – Federal Reserve: Rate hike likely before year-end Officials’ expectations for the fed funds rate this year also drifted lower. In the spring, forecasts ranged up to nearly 2 percent by year end. Wednesday’s… Continue reading Timing The First Rate Hike
The Wall Street Journal – Greg Ip: Memo to Fed: Let the Economy Overheat The Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday, with some trepidation, that it remains on track to raise interest rates later this year. Ordinarily, with unemployment now approaching levels associated with an economy at full strength, the case for raising rates would be open… Continue reading A Call To Keep Rates Low
The Wall Street Journal – Jon Hilsenrath: Fed Signals Rate Moves Before Year’s End Officials point to improvements in U.S. economy, but for now keep policy in place The Federal Reserve signaled it was moving toward interest-rate increases later this year now that signs of a slowdown in economic activity are waning, but the path… Continue reading The FOMC Meeting
Comment After each FOMC meeting, we highlight a St. Louis Fed study on the rising complexity of the FOMC statement. As the charts below show, both the word count and the Flesch-Kincaid level have come down from their peaks of the past couple years (the Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level measures the number of years of school… Continue reading Understanding Fedspeak
Zero Hedge (Blog) – Did Janet Yellen Just Ban A Reporter From The Fed Press Conference For Asking “Difficult” Questions In March – the last Q&A session post-FOMC statement, Dow Jones reporter Pedro da Costa dared to ask about The Fed’s leaking of crucial details about FOMC decisions to a newsletter and its subsequent refusal… Continue reading Asking Yellen The Tough Questions
Bloomberg – Lower Breakeven Prices Mean U.S. Can Keep Oil Flowing U.S. shale has nothing to fear from the current low oil price environment, which has seen crude prices fall 40 percent since June last year. Research by Bloomberg New Energy Finance shows that a reduction in the cost of drilling and completing wells has… Continue reading The Case For Lower Crude Oil Prices
The Financial Times – Liquidity pitfalls threaten parched markets Welcome to the desert. The financial industry’s great debate du jour is “liquidity”, specifically how parched it looks at the moment. Liquidity is tricky to define, but essentially means the ease of trading a financial security quickly, efficiently and without moving the price too much. Traders… Continue reading Liquidity Issues