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Why Retail Sales and Consumption Is Staying Strong
August 21, 2024
Recessions and crises change behavior. Government stimulus checks mailed during the pandemic told consumers they don't need to save as much. This is driving strong consumption and retail sales, keeping economic growth above potential. Such an economy does not need rate cuts.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 21, 2024
Today's topics include investors will hang on Powell's every word at Jackson Hole, don't forget recession predictions are just guesses, bond bullishness, interpreting the bond market, federal spending was the cause of inflation, more carry trades, money market funds add nearly $90b in August, gold bullishness, dollar down on rate cuts ahead, artificial intelligence excitement dying out, and tipping in the United States causes consumer frustration
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Cartoons
August 21, 2024
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 20, 2024
Today's topics include the BLS releases benchmark payrolls revisions tomorrow, in search of neutral, stock returns around Jackson Hole, hedge funds still love big tech, volatility of volatility, how can the Fed loosen an already loose economy?, the Fed makes or brakes an economic expansion, the BoJ may not be done hiking, and gold sees record prices
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Cartoons
August 20, 2024
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 19, 2024
Today's topics include all eyes on Jackson Hole, Fed officials push back on a large rate cut, inflation expectations, the art of stock picking, T-bill issuance, hedging against the next downturn, companies not concerned about a recession, the commodity super-cycle, and more on the shipping industry
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Cartoons
August 19, 2024
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 16, 2024
Today's topics include the impact of potential 2024 cuts, digging into the selloff & rebound, where is the slowdown?, a brief uninversion, money markets hit fresh record, good news is good news but don't forget to tell the Fed, equities not pricing in higher crude prices as U.S. economy seems resilient, yen carry trade is returning after brutal unwind, buying the rebound in Japan, and how executives think about inflation
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Cartoons
August 16, 2024
Charts of the Week
Household Debt Stands at $17.80 Trillion
August 16, 2024
Household debt in the U.S. stood at $17.80 trillion in the second quarter.
Charts of the Week
Credit Utilization on the Rise
August 16, 2024
Credit utilization remains historically low, but has risen since 2021.