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Tracking the Unwind
August 6, 2024
JP Morgan suggests the speculative carry trade is only half unwound. The exchange rate between the yen and peso is one market to monitor closely.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 6, 2024
Today's topics include how will the market selloff impact the Fed's path?, Goolsbee & Daly attempt to tame the masses, the end of easy money: Japanese edition, turnaround Tuesday, the storm after the calm, recession fears, and stocks vs. bonds
Newsclips
Cartoons
August 6, 2024
Conference Calls
Is Volatility Being Driven by Financial or Economic Factors?
August 5, 2024
A replay of our August 8, 2024 conference call.
Newsclips
Are These Markets Financially or Economically Driven?
August 5, 2024
Not all sharp moves in financial markets are driven by rapid changes in the economic outlook. Unexpected changes in the financial structure of the markets can also force repricing. The most recent move in the markets has been driven by the Bank of Japan's larger-than-expected hike last week, leading to a subsequent unwind of the yen carry trade.
Newsclips
Q2 2024 Earnings Update: Growth Not Slowing Down
August 5, 2024
We are into Q2 2024 earnings season. Expectations for Q2 have increased, even as high-profile companies miss projections.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 5, 2024
Today's topics include a 75 basis point rate cut?, Fedspeak, diving deeper into Friday's payrolls release, volatility spikes, Japanese stocks take biggest hit in 37 years, the yen carry trade unwind, the yield curve on the verge of uninverting, what happens to stocks after the first rate cut?, and hedge funds sour on commodities
Newsclips
Cartoons
August 5, 2024
Focused Research
Employment in Pictures – Sahm Rule Triggered
August 2, 2024
The jobs report raises fears of a serious economic slowdown, if not a recession. These fears are overblown. That said, we expect the Fed to respond with rate cuts.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 2, 2024
Today's topics include a perspective on a political Fed, the Fed's rock & hard place moment, high profile earnings misses drag tech outlook, 10-year yield is below 4%, global central bank divergence, dumping Japanese stocks, China's failing recovery poses global risks, flows v. performance disconnect in fixed income, worker productivity rises in the US, commodities struggle, and predicting crises is a judgement call