Comment Below is a story consistent with Grant’s comments. The Guardian – Financial markets are not free – they’re one of the last bastions of socialism From QE to rate rise delays to Beijing’s stock market interventions, the world’s policymakers have done everything possible to boost asset prices You can’t buck the market, so said… Continue reading Jim Grant Speaks
Businessweek- Will the Next Recession Be Made in China? When China sneezes, the world just might catch a cold China accounted for almost 40 percent of global growth last year. Its appetite for raw materials has undergirded economies from Australia to Brazil to South Africa, and its production capabilities have lowered prices of industrial machines… Continue reading A Cover For Contrarians
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – Financial markets: The Great Fall of China Fear about China’s economy can be overdone. But investors are right to be nervous ONCE the soundtrack to a financial meltdown was the yelling of traders on the floor of a financial exchange. Now it is more likely to… Continue reading China
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Stock Halts Added to Monday’s Market Chaos Rules designed to ensure orderly trading may have had opposite effect Monday’s mayhem in stocks appears to have been exacerbated by rules designed to ensure orderly trading, executives and traders said, the latest ripple from investors’ embrace… Continue reading Was Monday Morning Another Flash Crash?
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – Monetary policy in Japan: Core concern Life keeps getting harder for Japan’s central bankers AFTER two years of remission, Japan seems likely to sink back into the “chronic disease” of deflation, as Haruhiko Kuroda, the governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), calls it. New data… Continue reading Japan
Bloomberg View – Barry Ritholtz: Mom and Pop Outsmart Wall Street Pros Here’s a bit of role reversal for you: Mom and Pop were content to ride out the market’s volatility this past month, more or less sitting tight. Meanwhile, the pros were driven to the point of near panic. What was all the fuss… Continue reading Main Street Investors vs. Hedge Funds
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<Click on chart for larger image> Comment As the chart above shows, the probability of a fed hike has not moved up on the strong GDP data, it is still at 28%. If the Fed is data dependent, according the the parameters they have made, they have all they need to hike. Only a disastrous… Continue reading The Market Still Believes There Won’t Be A Rate Hike In September, Does The Fed See It That Way?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump At a time when the oil price is languishing at its lowest level in six years, producers need to find half a trillion dollars to repay debt. Some might not make it. The number of oil… Continue reading More Bearish News On Oil?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Arbor Quantitative Analytics – S&P 500 – Exterior Forces Gaining Influence Average correlation of the S&P 500 to Hang Seng, STOXX 50, Commodities, and Emerging Market indices has shot to its highest (0.53) since Nov 2012. Maybe QE helped insulate the US from these exterior forces? It appears these… Continue reading What Is Moving Stocks?
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment The chart above is from The Treasury’s International Capital Movements Report. It is current through June. The August data will be released in mid-October. So, as we detailed yesterday, no good data exists but market trading patterns are consistent with the idea that a heavy seller like the… Continue reading More On China Selling Treasuries
The Telegraph (UK) – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: China is in a serious bind but this is not yet a ‘Lehman’ moment The financial crises of 1987 and 1998 were frightening, but neither led to recession. Economic conditions in 2008 were very different You need steel nerves to resist the emotional pull of a full-blown financial panic. … Continue reading More On China