<Click on chart for larger image> Comment As the chart above shows, the probabilities for a September hike are unchanged from Friday’s close at 38%. Yes, we still have two weeks until the meeting but in a quick cursory look we cannot find a meeting with the probabilities “close” to 50/50 two weeks before. Normally… Continue reading September Rate Hike … Nothing Is Settled
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Blue Chips With Fat Dividends Offer Value After last week’s market selloff and rebound, stocks of companies such as GE, JPMorgan Chase, Merck, and BlackRock offer value plus income. The worst may be over. U.S. stocks roared higher for much of last week,… Continue reading Stock Sentiment
<Click on graphic for larger image> Barron’s – China Has Another 15% to Fall Strategists see the Shanghai Composite falling to around 2700 before bottoming out. Buckle up! China’s battered, bruised, and bloodied stock market could fall at least another 15% before it hits the bottom. hat’s the call from some top strategists and money… Continue reading Managing Chinese Stocks
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Stock Market Investors Should Watch the Credit Canary Corporate bond market could give vital clues Investors already might feel they are juggling with China, the U.S. Federal Reserve, commodities and fluctuating stocks, but it is worth keeping an eye on another ball in the… Continue reading Looking For Clues In The Credit Market
The Wall Street Journal – Fed’s Fischer: ‘Good Reason’ to Think U.S. Inflation Will Move Higher Vice chairman says Fed shouldn’t ‘wait until inflation is back to 2% to begin tightening’ The Federal Reserve’s No. 2 official said there is “good reason” to think sluggish U.S. inflation will firm and move back toward the U.S.… Continue reading Inflation
The Financial Times – Central bank monetary arsenal is increasingly ineffective “Don’t fight the Fed” is a key commandment for every trader on Wall Street. Underlying it is the assumption that central bankers rule financial markets and can move prices, wiping out anything in their way. The recent Chinese stock market rout and the global… Continue reading Centrally Planned Markets
The Financial Times – Gillian Tett: Welcome to a wild world of robot investing Automated computer programs have changed how markets function While it may take weeks before regulators understand why the plunges occurred, one reason for the swing is that automated computer programs have changed how markets function. The use of similar programs —… Continue reading The Rise Of The Machines
<Click on graphic for larger image> MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – A Shaggy ‘Correction Beard’ Comes Off After This Week’s Stock Turmoil Jesse Felder finally shaved his “correction beard” Monday–11 months after he vowed to let it grow until the stock market fell 10%. Mr. Felder, a trader, stock-market blogger and former Bear Stearns employee, started… Continue reading At Least One Person Is Happy Stocks Finally Corrected
Comment Earlier this week we noted that the S&P 500 declined 10.2% in just four days. This is only the 9th time in the last 80 years that stocks declined at least 10% in this short a period of time. * 8/25/15 (China crisis) * 8/8/11 (US loses AAA) * 10/7/08 (Height of financial crisis)… Continue reading Will Stocks At Least Retest This Week’s Lows?
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment All week we have been highlighting the chart above. It shows that the market is now putting the probability of a hike at the September meeting (Using Bloomberg’s WIRP methodology) at just 30%. We believe the odds have dropped so much and have not rebounded because the marketplace… Continue reading Your Daily Update Of The Market Versus The Fed
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Fed Up Investors Yank Cash From Almost Everything Just Like 2008 Mom and pop are running for the hills. Since July, American households — which account for almost all mutual fund investors — have pulled money both from mutual funds that invest in stocks and those that… Continue reading Investors Bail On Everything