Reuters – Fed should not raise interest rates just yet: China Finmin Now is not the right time for the United States to raise interest rates, given the global economic situation, China’s Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said in an interview published in the China Business News on Monday. Speaking on the sidelines of the annual… Continue reading China Opines On The Fed
The Financial Times – Oil market glut will persist through 2016, says IEA Higher oil output from Opec and a slowdown in world economic growth means the crude oil glut will persist through next year, the world’s leading energy forecaster said on Tuesday. The International Energy Agency said it expected a “marked slowdown” in oil… Continue reading Still Pumping Too Much Oil?
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<Click on graphics for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – WSJ Survey: Economists Still See Fed Rate Increase in 2015 Sixty-four percent of respondents now say the Federal Reserve will increase rates at its Dec. 15-16 meeting Economists are taking Federal Reserve officials at their word—the first interest-rate increase will come this year. About… Continue reading The Fed vs The Market, Who Leads And Who Follows?
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Financial Times – Gillian Tett: Asset prices march to one unnerving beat When turbulence hit global markets this summer some of the best hedge fund gurus were hammered For a third clue to why some hedge funds are suffering, take a look at a chart on page 22… Continue reading Market Correlations
<Click on graphic for larger image> Business Insider – One new phrase jumped out in the Fed’s statement (Sep 17) “Volatility in international markets and worries over global growth appear to have stayed the Fed’s hand,” argues to UBS global chief investment officer Mark Haefele. When it comes to the Fed’s decisions, generally, its main… Continue reading All Eyes On China
<Click on chart for larger image> Econoday – Challenger Job-Cut Report The rise in Challenger’s count has yet to inflate jobless claims which remain near historic lows. Announcements sometimes take months before jobs are actually cut so today’s results, though a negative for the outlook, are not likely to affect expectations for tomorrow’s employment report.… Continue reading Are Initial Claims Going To Head Higher?
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Oil Investors Gain Over $70 Billion in Best Week Since 2008 European oil company shares gain as crude passes $50 a barrel Shell, Pimco say the worst may be over for oil market Oil has rebounded this week with the U.S.… Continue reading Crude And Energy ETF Flows
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg – Barry Ritholtz: Some Bear-Market Insight in One Chart Each quarter, I eagerly look forward to the arrival of JPMorgan’s interactive Guide to the Markets — 70-plus pages of charting pleasure. It’s packed with sexy graphics, loads of data and slick stock, bond, commodity and economic charts. One of… Continue reading A Look At Bear Markets
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – If You Thought China’s Equity Bubble Was Scary, Check Out Bonds Debt prices surge as PBOC eases and funds shift from stocks China’s boom is at odds with world as CDS show rising risks As a rout in Chinese stocks this year erased $5 trillion of value,… Continue reading The Chinese Bond Market
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – Quantitative frightening The world’s vast stockpile of reserves is falling, raising fears of dwindling global liquidity A DEFINING feature of the world economy over the past 15 years was the unprecedented accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves. Central banks, led by those in China and the oil-producing states,… Continue reading Quantitative Tightening
<Click on graphic for larger image> Arbor Quantitative Analytics – FFs Target Rate – Probability of Easing Cycle We re-ran AQA’s model producing probabilities of economic growth rates matching past easing cycles. Cycle are defined as TIGHTENING if last Fed move was a hike, and EASING if last Fed move was a cut in the… Continue reading Will The Fed’s Next Move Be More QE?