<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Martin Wolf: Solid growth is harder than blowing bubbles Now it is not just America — the world economy also catches a cold when China sneezes Over the past one and a half decades long-term real interest rates on high-quality securities have been low, indicating… Continue reading World Growth And China
Bloomberg Business – Wall Street Treasury Bond Desks Survive, Thrive in New Obscurity All the handwringing over Wall Street’s retreat from Treasuries dealing, it turns out, may be overdone. The banks are taking less risk, of course, and are getting squeezed by the high-speed trading firms proliferating on venues where they traditionally made markets. But… Continue reading Treasury Bond Desks Thrive
Bloomberg Business – It’s Quantitative Easing, Europe, But Not as We’ve Known It Bond investors, get ready for quantitative easing to mutate in Europe. The European Central Bank this week started a limited pilot program to test out buying bonds through auctions rather than approaching dealers one to one. Strategists say the system is designed… Continue reading QE In Europe
None Today
Comment On October 15, 2015 at 9 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT, and 15:00 BST), Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Join us Thursday as we discuss: * The Fed (we see no hike for several months, if at all)… Continue reading The Fed, Earnings, The Economy and Commodities Over The Next Several Months
<Click on chart for larger image> Tim Duy’s Fed Watch – Brainard Drops A Policy Bomb What if a Federal Reserve Governor drops a policy bomb in the woods and no one is there to hear it? Did it really make a noise? That’s what happened today. While the bond market was closed and whatever… Continue reading Fed Update
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Reuters – Earnings to sing the economy’s blues: James Saft This U.S. earnings season the data from the frontline is about to confirm the broader economic narrative: things aren’t so great. How that plays out in financial markets and whether we begin to… Continue reading Earnings Season Begins In Earnest This Week
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment Despite all the talk of value, mergers are momentum-driven. More deals get done when stock prices are high (expensive) than when stock prices are low (cheap). See the chart above. CEOs and private equity managers were killing themselves to do deals when stocks were expensive in 2000 and… Continue reading M&A Boom Marking A Market Peak?
The Washington Post – Robert Samuelson: Bernanke theory not quite complete How does Bernanke’s memoir add to our knowledge? … Up to a point, all this rings true. Still, as a theory of the crisis, it’s incomplete. Financial crises are not entirely random events. The system has to be vulnerable to a shock. Bernanke identifies… Continue reading Criticizing Bernanke
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Fortress Investment Group Plans to Close Flagship Macro Hedge Fund A troubled year on Wall Street has brought down one of its biggest stars. Michael Novogratz will leave Fortress Investment Group LLC and the private-equity and hedge-fund firm will close the flagship macro hedge… Continue reading More Hedge Fund Pain
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Financial Times – Joe Rennison: US bond sell-off puts squeeze on swaps trade Market dislocations often convey unpleasant truths for investors and policymakers. That is one conclusion gleaned from the current breakdown between US interest rate derivatives and the world’s biggest government bond market. Interest rate swaps, like… Continue reading Swap Spreads
CNBC – Is EM turmoil the third wave of the financial crisis? Goldman thinks so Emerging markets aren’t just suffering through another market rout — it’s a third wave of the global financial crisis, Goldman Sachs said. “Increased uncertainty about the fallout from weaker emerging market economies, lower commodity prices and potentially higher U.S. interest… Continue reading World Markets/Growth