<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Gross Says 100% Certain of December Rate Hike as Jobs Surge Bill Gross said there is a “100 percent chance” the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December after jobs surged. “They are ready to go,” Gross said in an interview with Tom Keene and Michael… Continue reading Some Big Names Weigh In On Fed Policy
Reuters – Fed faces challenge of how to justify possible slowdown in jobs growth – Bullard The Federal Reserve has been struggling to convince investors it is about to raise interest rates and now faces the risk that a likely slowdown in job growth will be interpreted as a downturn in the broader economy that… Continue reading Bullard Warns Of Unrealistic Job Growth Expectations
Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Greg Ip: Still Not Enough Good News on Wages The October jobs report was full of positive signs for the economy but by far the most important was the 0.4% jump in average hourly earnings, which brought the annual increase to 2.5%, the highest since 2009…More broadly, the hourly… Continue reading Wage Growth
St. Louis Federal Reserve – Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure Policymakers usually want to know—to the extent possible—the probability that inflation over the next four or eight quarters will exceed the inflation target. Or, if inflation is very low, they may also want to know the probability that inflation will fall below… Continue reading The St. Louis Fed’s Price Pressures Measure
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Hedge-Fund Prodigy Takes a $300 Million Hit She earned an M.B.A. from Wharton at age 21, won backing from hedge-fund industry heavyweight Julian Robertson before she turned 30 and earlier this year became one of the few women to manage more than $1 billion… Continue reading More Hedge Fund Pain
The Financial Times – Gavyn Davies: The end of the latest deflation scare There are several reasons for believing that inflation expectations will shift away from deflation in the coming months: 1. Global industrial production has started to rebound…2. Inflation rates in the advanced economies have stopped falling…3. Inflation expectations in the markets have started… Continue reading Inflation vs. Deflation
Bloomberg.com – For U.S. Stocks, Warnings Found in Investment-Grade Credits Across the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, evidence has surfaced that the stresses that blew into credit markets this summer have changed the way Americans view stocks. Case in point: for one of the few times since 1996, companies whose bonds are rated investment grade… Continue reading Investment Grade Valuations
Bloomberg.com – Fed Proves Irrelevant in $2.6 Trillion Slice of U.S. Debt Market The blowout U.S. jobs report for October means the Federal Reserve may be weeks away from raising interest rates. For U.S. savers earning next to nothing on $2.6 trillion of money-market mutual funds, the move will barely register. The reason is that… Continue reading A Dearth Of Bills & Bonds
The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Hiring Surges as Eyes Turn to Fed U.S. employers hired at their strongest pace this year in October, a sign of sturdy economic growth that is likely to reassure Federal Reserve officials as they weigh raising interest rates in December. Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 271,000 in October,… Continue reading Employment In Pictures
Comment Yesterday we hosted a conference call titled Will The Fed Hike? What Will The Market’s Reaction Be? The mp3 replay, handout and rough bullet point notes of the call are below. A transcript and webcast replay of the call will be sent out on Monday. Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/110515.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] [pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=275″] TOPIC 1… Continue reading Will The Fed Hike? What Will The Market’s Reaction Be?
<Click on chart for larger image> Reuters.com – Feeling ignored, Fed jolts markets to prime them for lift-off When the U.S. Federal Reserve tweaked its policy statement last week and put a December rate rise squarely back in play, it took a calculated gamble that reaching for an old and controversial policy tool would get… Continue reading Timing The Rate Hike