<Click on chart for larger image> Comment The relationship between stocks and bonds was a recurring topic of our conference calls in 2013. It was also detailed here and in our May 8, 2014 conference call. Our theories regarding the relationship between stocks and bonds revolve around whether the market currently has an inflationary or… Continue reading The Stock/Bond Relationship
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Sam Fleming: Fed’s Rosengren strikes upbeat note on rise in interest rates The US economy has suffered little collateral damage from the turbulence in emerging economies and financial markets during the summer, leaving the way open for the Federal Reserve to consider lifting interest rates,… Continue reading Timing The Rate Hike
The Financial Times – Why are swap rates below bond yields? US interest rate swaps, popular derivatives that track government bond yields, have experienced a spectacular collapse this month with an array of reasons being suggested by traders. This market emerged during the 1980s and has become a fundamental part of finance. Like bonds sold… Continue reading More On Swap Spreads
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Lawrence Summers: Grasp the reality of China’s rise Reasonable dialogue requires a recognition of the tensions between short and long-term interests For the first time in centuries, China now affects the global economy as much as it is affected by the global economy. In the… Continue reading Why China Matters
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Hedge Funds Load Up on Sugar Suddenly, investors again see opportunity in sugar. Raw-sugar futures prices are up 39% since Aug. 24, the market’s largest gain since 2011 and a rare increase amid a deepening commodity bust. Futures-trading volume set a record in September,… Continue reading Hedge Funds Go Long On Sugar
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg View – Mohamed A. El-Erian: How Volatile Will Market Volatility Get? In sum, predicting the extent of market volatility to come is inherently difficult because of the uncharted policy and market terrain created by the central banks’ unexpectedly long reliance on unconventional monetary policy. It also is hard… Continue reading Volatility In Markets
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – As GE Joins the $300-Billion Club, How Top-Heavy Is the Market? Amazon.com Inc., Facebook Inc. and General Electric Co. saw their market caps exceed $300 billion on consecutive days to end last week, a turn of events that means now is likely the first… Continue reading How Top Heavy Is The S&P 500?
Brookings.edu – Ben Bernanke: Budgetary sleight-of-hand Unlike the Fed’s remittances, which are real resources whose availability reduces the burden on the taxpayer, drawing down the Fed’s capital provides no net new funding for the government. Here are two (equivalent) ways to see why: 1. As noted, the Fed’s capital allows for some smoothing over time… Continue reading Bernanke Speaks On Using Fed Capital For Government Expenditures
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Wage Gains Seen Picking Up for U.S. Workers at Small Companies Wage growth is poised to accelerate at small U.S. companies this month after a slowdown in October. A net 17 percent of managers last month said they plan to increase pay, up 1 percentage point… Continue reading Wages
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Will The Fed Hike? What Will The Market’s Reaction Be? A transcript of the November 5, 2015 conference call. Handout Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/110515.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Webcast [hana-flv-player video=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/110515.flv” width=”600″ height=”495″ description=”” player=”3″ autoload=”false” autoplay=”false” loop=”false” autorewind=”true” splashimage=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/themes/twentyten/images/splash.jpg” /] [pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=275″]
Bloomberg Business – This Is the Worst U.S. Earnings Season Since 2009 Biggest quarterly drop since the aftermath of the financial crisis. This U.S. earnings season is on track to be the worst since 2009 as profits from oil & gas and commodity-related companies plummet. So far, about three-quarters of the S&P 500 have reported… Continue reading An Earnings Update