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Conference Calls
Conflicting Market & Economic Signals
September 23, 2024
A replay of our September 26, 2024 conference call.
Media & Communications
Jim Bianco joins the Schwab Network to explain why LEI are failing to predict the post-Covid economy
September 23, 2024
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators’ failure to predict the post-Covid economy should be a reminder that this is no longer the pre-Covid economy. Assuming the economy “normalizes” to the pre-Covid economy risks policy mistakes.
Newsclips
All Models Are Wrong, Some Are Useful
September 23, 2024
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators' failure to predict the post-Covid economy should be a reminder that this is no longer the pre-Covid economy. Assuming the economy "normalizes" to the pre-Covid economy risks policy mistakes.
Newsclips
The Latest on the Election Horse Race
September 23, 2024
While the odds of a Harris presidency have been trending higher post-debate, the broad measures of betting markets, polling averages, and models are best described as too close to call. The election is now forty-three days away.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 23, 2024
Today's topics include market reactions in year after first rate cut, making the case that this time is different, markets see coin flip in November between 25 and 50, yields inch higher after rate cut, the yield curve's predictive power, big bank profits, are money market funds dry powder for risk markets?, small cap stocks go streaking, gold vs. stocks since 2002, and crypto is a leveraged bet on stocks
Newsclips
Cartoons
September 23, 2024
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 20, 2024
Today's topics include the prospects of future easing, dissents at the Fed, focusing on the neutral rate, Dudley on the Fed's reasoning for 50bp cut, BofA's Hartnett focuses on resurgence of bubble risk, China holds rates even with economic activity deteriorating, capturing yield in junk bonds as the Fed cuts rates, Fed moves in election cycles, and struggles of active management in a concentrated market
Newsclips
Cartoons
September 20, 2024
Charts of the Week
Breaking Down Debt in the U.S.
September 20, 2024
A look at outstanding amounts of Treasuries, corporates, agencies, munis and open market paper
Charts of the Week
Comparing the Value of Credit in the U.S. to GDP
September 20, 2024
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period.
Charts of the Week
Funding Gaps at Public and Private Pensions
September 20, 2024
Private pension funds typically have much smaller funding gaps than their government counterparts.