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Inflation Watch – Uptick in Shelter Prices Likely Closes Door on 50 Basis Point Cut
September 11, 2024
August's inflation data came in right at expectations. Diving deeper into the data, year-over-year shelter prices rose for the first time since March 2023. The door has likely closed on traders' hopes of a larger rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 11, 2024
Today's topics include breakevens are pricing inflation below 2%, on the road to $2 trillion, lending standards & Fed rate cut timing, the 2s10s yield curve has disinverted, hedge fund activity & PE lending, eyes on the BoJ, the structure of the labor market, more on a struggling Chinese economy, and a focus on the costs & outcomes of AI
Newsclips
Cartoons
September 11, 2024
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 10, 2024
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, the yield curve, economic uncertainty, handicapping the debate, Yellen on the U.S. economy, a struggling European economy, BoJ signals it will keep rates unchanged next week, China's battle against deflation, the return of HELOCs, and multi-manager hedge funds see outflows
Newsclips
Cartoons
September 10, 2024
Media & Communications
Jim Bianco on Bullishness in the Bond Market, Measuring the Labor Market/Economy, New Inflation Rate
September 9, 2024
Jim Bianco joins Bloomberg to discuss Bullishness in the Bond Market, Measuring the Labor Market/Economy, New Inflation Rate with Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz & Annmarie Hordern.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 9, 2024
Today's topics include the 25 vs. 50 debate rolls on, the Fed is late to the rate-cutting party, asset classes telling different economic story, stock market seasonality, pricing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, housing affordability, Chinese deflation, record corporate issuance, an eye on port strikes, and Bitcoin ETF outflows
Newsclips
Cartoons
September 9, 2024
Focused Research
Employment in Pictures – Enough to Dictate a 50 Basis Point Cut?
September 6, 2024
The jobs report missed estimates slightly. Downward revisions to the past couple months were more substantial. However, wage growth ticked higher. Traders did not see the data as bad enough to definitively dictate a 50 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 6, 2024
Today's topics include perspective on the sizing of September's rate cut, paying attention to volatility, Fedspeak, more new debt issues, the state of globalization, commodity demand, issues in China seem hard to resolve, more on China's desire to control markets & investment, office commercial real estate issues are not over, and Cliff Asness on market efficiency & social media