<Click on graphic for larger image> Comment Yesterday we detailed how the first week and first month of the year are not predictive for the rest of the year. That said, we still find it interesting that after 6 days the market is still having its worst start ever. How many more days will this… Continue reading More On Stocks’ Awful Start To 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Bank of America: Rail Traffic Is Saying Something Worrying About the U.S. Economy Rail carloads are looking recessionary. It’s not the jobs report or the latest housing data but railway cargo that has analysts at Bank of America concerned. Railroad cargo in the U.S. dropped the most in… Continue reading Rail Traffic Is Not Looking Good
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What To Look For In 2016 A transcript of the January 7, 2016 conference call. Handout Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/010716.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Webcast [hana-flv-player video=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/010716.flv” width=”600″ height=”495″ description=”” player=”3″ autoload=”false” autoplay=”false” loop=”false” autorewind=”true” splashimage=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/themes/twentyten/images/splash.jpg” /] [pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=278″]
Business Insider – Labor force participation rate slightly improves Since about the turn of the millennium, the labor-force participation rate, or the share of American civilians over the age of 16 who are either working or looking for a job, has dropped pretty dramatically, with an acceleration in that drop after the 2008 financial crisis… Continue reading Discussing The Labor Force Participation Rate
The New York Times – James B. Stewart: For Stock Markets, January Is a Cloudy Crystal Ball As January goes, so goes the entire market year. That’s probably the best-known aphorism from the Stock Trader’s Almanac, an annual compilation of dates, statistics and advice for investors first published in 1968 by Yale Hirsch. A prolific… Continue reading The Myth Of The First Trading Week Of The Year
Chart Courtesy The Chart Store <Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Fed Eyes Margin Rules to Bolster Oversight Rules limiting what portion of stocks or bonds can be purchased through borrowing are moving up the Fed’s to-do list The Federal Reserve is dusting off a legal power it has largely… Continue reading Margin Requirements
Atlanta Federal Reserve – Latest forecast — January 8, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 0.8 percent on January 8, down from 1.0 percent on January 6. The forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth declined… Continue reading Economic Update
FactSet – Earnings Insight for January 8, 2016 Earnings Growth: For Q4 2015, the estimated earnings decline is -5. 3%. If the index reports a decline in earnings for Q4, it will mark the first time the index has seen three consecutive quarters of year- over-year declines in earnings since Q1 2009 through Q3 2009.… Continue reading Earnings Season Begins This Week
<Click on image for larger picture> Real Time Economics – Wage Growth Is Weak. Inflation-Adjusted Wage Growth Is Much Healthier The last three decades appear to be a considerable disappointment compared with the late 1970s, when wages were growing at nearly a 10% clip. But wait a moment, the late-1970s? Is something missing from this… Continue reading Wage Growth
Project Syndicate – Mohamed El-Erian: The Chinese Economy’s Great Wall The recent decline in China’s currency, the renminbi, which has fueled turmoil in Chinese stock markets and drove the government to suspend trading twice last week, highlights a major challenge facing the country: how to balance its domestic and international economic obligations. The approach the… Continue reading More On China
Associated Press – Markets to face slowing company profits after China tumult Tumult in China triggered the worst opening week for US stocks in history, and now investors have to face what analysts expect will be a weak earnings season Tumult in China triggered the worst opening week for U.S. stocks in history, and this… Continue reading U.S. Stocks And China