<Click on chart for larger image> MarketWatch.com – Caroline Baum: So many jobs, so little growth. What gives? The U.S. economy just witnessed the two best years of job growth — 2014 and 2015, in that order — since 1999. Yet real economic growth has been bumping along at a 2.1% rate since the Great… Continue reading Where Is GDP Growth?
<Click on chart for larger image> MarketWatch.com – 10-year Treasury yield closes at 2-month low as oil rout resumes Treasury prices rose Tuesday, pushing the benchmark 10-year yield to its lowest level in more than two months amid a fresh drop in oil prices. Earlier in the day, a modest uptick in crude-oil prices helped… Continue reading A Look At U.S. Yields
The Wall Street Journal – China’s ‘National Team’ Plays Defense When Stocks Decline As Chinese markets tanked last week, China Inc. appeared to be rallying to their support. At least 75 Chinese companies issued statements during the past week and a half, saying their biggest shareholders would be holding on to their stakes in order… Continue reading Regulation In China
MarketWatch.com – Another Great Recession threatens world financial markets Mr. Global Economy has spent much of the past seven years in an induced coma, with only a modest recovery from the Great Recession. The root causes of the life-threatening 2008-09 financial crisis remain unaddressed. Debt levels are higher now, and imbalances remain. Structural changes have… Continue reading Recession Talk
Fed Hater Math <Click on graphic for larger image>
<Click on picture to view video> Comment Yesterday Jim was on Bloomberg TV discussing volatile markets and China. To view the interview, click on the image above. To view any of our recent interviews, click here. The Financial Times – Another Chinese billionaire goes missing The billionaire founder of Metersbonwe, one of China’s best-known fashion… Continue reading The Real Problem In China, Loss of Confidence and Capital Flight
Bloomberg.com – Chinese Officials Push Back Against Yuan Devaluation Concerns Forecasts yuan will drop rapidly are `ridiculous’: official PBOC’s Ma says investors misunderstood intentions on fixing Betting against the yuan will fail and calls for a large depreciation are “ridiculous” as policy makers are determined to ensure the currency’s stability, Han Jun, the deputy director… Continue reading Yuan Depreciation, From “Nonsense” To “Ridiculous”
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – China opens new front in war on speculators China has opened a new front in its war to curb currency depreciation by buying up renminbi offshore, foiling the burgeoning carry trade and driving the cost of borrowing to a record high. The elevated overnight CNH… Continue reading The PBoC Squeezes Speculators
Comment Last week’s strong payroll report has prompted many to ask why other economic numbers are not showing similar improvement, especially GDP. The consensus view is payrolls are “right” and GDP is “wrong”, meaning the economy is stronger than GDP suggests. We would argue the opposite as the BLS changed the way it conducts the… Continue reading Do Payrolls Have A Measurement Problem Leading To Strong Numbers?
Bloomberg.com – Third Avenue Sees Assets Fall 21% in Quarter as Investors Flee Equity funds hit with outflows after credit fund frozen Biggest withdrawals experienced by firm’s real estate fund Third Avenue Management, which took the rare step of freezing redemptions in a distressed debt mutual fund last month, saw investors also pull money from… Continue reading Junk Funds With “Avenue” In Their Name Struggle
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns Crude’s plunge to near $30 a barrel fans worries that it could sink a third of U.S. oil producers Crude-oil prices plunged more than 5% on Monday to trade near $30 a barrel, making the specter of bankruptcy ever… Continue reading We Still Produce Too Much Crude Oil
<Click on chart for larger image> MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Russell 2000 Flirts With Bear Market Territory The Dow Jones Transportation Average fell into bear-market territory last week to cap its more than yearlong slide. The Russell 2000 is poised to join it, and it’s fallen nearly 20% in much less time. After setting its… Continue reading Pain For Small Cap Stocks