While the odds of a Harris presidency have been trending higher post-debate, the broad measures of betting markets, polling averages, and models are best described as too close to call. The election is now forty-three days away.
Today's topics include market reactions in year after first rate cut, making the case that this time is different, markets see coin flip in November between 25 and 50, yields inch higher after rate cut, the yield curve's predictive power, big bank profits, are money market funds dry powder for risk markets?, small cap stocks go streaking, gold vs. stocks since 2002, and crypto is a leveraged bet on stocks
Today's topics include the prospects of future easing, dissents at the Fed, focusing on the neutral rate, Dudley on the Fed's reasoning for 50bp cut, BofA's Hartnett focuses on resurgence of bubble risk, China holds rates even with economic activity deteriorating, capturing yield in junk bonds as the Fed cuts rates, Fed moves in election cycles, and struggles of active management in a concentrated market
A look at outstanding amounts of Treasuries, corporates, agencies, munis and open market paper
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period.
Private pension funds typically have much smaller funding gaps than their government counterparts.
Defined benefit plans continue to be replaced by IRAs and defined contribution plans.
Over the past couple decades, households' real estate equity and direct stock ownership have moved in lockstep.
Personal consumption continues to make up a larger portion of U.S. GDP as time progresses.
Roughly 40% of FDIC deposits in the U.S. are uninsured.