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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 26, 2024
Today's topics include breaking down Fed officials' rate forecasts, the Fed vs. the markets, the jobs market, BTFP loans become less attractive, money market funds remain attractive, betting on Chinese stimulus, and keep an eye on the yen
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Cartoons
September 26, 2024
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 25, 2024
Today's topics include the risk of resparking inflationary pressures, heavyweight battle: global central banks vs. the Fed, dollar nearly roundtrips its 2024 gains, China's economic growth issues, China's ability to move markets is failing, pressure on traditional asset managers as ETFs and alt managers grow, eroding trust between producers and consumers, and gold is on a mission higher in 2024
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Cartoons
September 25, 2024
Newsclips
What If Rates Return to Yield Curve Averages?
September 24, 2024
If the Fed cuts rates near 3%, historical yield curve spreads imply a 2-year yield near 3.60%, its current level. 10-year yields would project near 4.60%, 80 basis points higher than their current level.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 24, 2024
Today's topics include PBOC pulls out stimulus bazooka, China also attempts to shore up property market, Chinese 10-year yields touch 2%, is the Federal Reserve's importance overstated?, checking in on liquidity, an October hike unlikely for the BoJ, money market funds sticking with shorter-term bills, home prices, and bonds ETFs gain in popularity
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Cartoons
September 24, 2024
Conference Calls
Conflicting Market & Economic Signals
September 23, 2024
A replay of our September 26, 2024 conference call.
Media & Communications
Jim Bianco joins the Schwab Network to explain why LEI are failing to predict the post-Covid economy
September 23, 2024
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators’ failure to predict the post-Covid economy should be a reminder that this is no longer the pre-Covid economy. Assuming the economy “normalizes” to the pre-Covid economy risks policy mistakes.
Newsclips
All Models Are Wrong, Some Are Useful
September 23, 2024
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators' failure to predict the post-Covid economy should be a reminder that this is no longer the pre-Covid economy. Assuming the economy "normalizes" to the pre-Covid economy risks policy mistakes.
Newsclips
The Latest on the Election Horse Race
September 23, 2024
While the odds of a Harris presidency have been trending higher post-debate, the broad measures of betting markets, polling averages, and models are best described as too close to call. The election is now forty-three days away.