Comment *Please note* We had to cancel the conference call last week because of technical issues. Unfortunately this means you will have to re-register for this “new” conference call even if you registered for the call last week. We apologize for the inconvenience. On March 17, 2016 at 9 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00… Continue reading On Rebounds And Election Betting
Bloomberg.com – Tim Duy: Stanley Fischer and Lael Brainard Are Battling for Yellen’s Soul Inflationary risks vs. financial market turmoil. Yellen is caught in a tug of war between Fischer and Brainard. At stake is the Fed chair’s willingness to embrace a policy stance that accepts the risk that inflation will overshoot the U.S. central bank’s target.… Continue reading Markets vs. Inflation, What Matters More For the Fed?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Wall Street Strategists Downgrade Equities Citing Lack of Central Bank Bullets Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan worry that stimulus no longer bears fruit. As central banks in Japan and Europe adopt negative interest rate regimes or cut rates further below zero, it seems as though Hungary is the… Continue reading Markets And Central Banks
<Click on graphic for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Comment As the two charts above highlight, everyone spent the entire 75% decline in crude oil picking a bottom. The top chart shows high-profile bottom calls and the second chart above shows Wall Street’s forecast. Note that the forecasts are always upward-sloping. But… Continue reading The Oil Bear Market Is Over, Again!
<Click on chart for larger image> Politico – Ben White: How Trump is roiling markets Traders say this year’s big swings on stocks stem in a large part from fears about the election. Wall Street has been on a wild ride the past few months with big daily swings increasingly the norm. And one major… Continue reading Trump And Stocks
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Donald Trump Aims for a Knockout in Tuesday Primaries Republican presidential front-runner attacks Marco Rubio in Florida and John Kasich in Ohio In a whirlwind of events on the eve of Tuesday’s primaries, Donald Trump aimed to sideline two Republican rivals on their home… Continue reading Election Betting Update
Bloomberg.com – Trump Gets Zero as Fed Employees Bestow More Money on Democrats Democrats got more than three-quarters of Fed staff donations Support for the GOP among Fed workers has declined this cycle Donald Trump and his main rivals for the Republican presidential nomination all have expressed dissatisfaction with the U.S. Federal Reserve. Campaign donation… Continue reading Fed Staffers Support The Democrats
The Telegraph (UK) – Global recession risk rises to 30pc this year, warn Morgan Stanley There is a near one in three chance the world economy will slip back in to recession this year as low oil prices and extraordinary monetary stimulus have a dwindling impact on global growth, Morgan Stanley has warned. The US investment bank said… Continue reading Global Recession
Bloomberg.com – Bangladesh Central Bank Chief Quits Over $101 Million Heist Rahman submits resignation to Bangladesh PM, spokesman says `They cannot insult me in public,’ Rahman tells Bloomberg Bangladesh central bank governor Atiur Rahman has submitted his resignation as tensions escalate with the finance minister after hackers stole about $101 million from the nation’s foreign… Continue reading More On The Bangladesh Central Bank Hack
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – China Drafts Rules for Tobin Tax on Currency Transactions Initial rate of levy may be kept at zero, people familiar said The rules still need central government approval, they said China’s central bank has drafted rules for a tax on foreign-exchange transactions that would help curb currency speculation,… Continue reading China To Tax Speculators?
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Financial Times – Gideon Rachman: The unravelling of Angela Merkel’s power The German chancellor has lost support at home and control in Europe The fate of Angela Merkel’s “open door” policy on refugees has assumed global significance. Nationalists from Russia to the US are pointing at the German… Continue reading Angela Merkel
The Financial Times – John Plender: Fund managers lose out from benchmarking The past year has not been a happy one for value managers who invest on the basis of fundamentals. Momentum traders who chase short-term trends have, by contrast, been making hay. Yet there is a conundrum about precisely where their profits come from,… Continue reading Fund Managers’ Struggles