Comment The column on the right-hand side of this page still highlights the primary betting from last night. The betting markets were 8 for 8 in predicting the outcomes of yesterday’s races. So, on one level no major surprises occurred last night. The next chart shows various candidates’ odds of winning the Presidency according to… Continue reading Election Betting Update
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – What to watch for when the Fed meets Policymakers’ language about balance of risks could signal when the next rate rise may come When US Federal Reserve policymakers last met in January it was amid violent market gyrations, warnings of a US recession and claims… Continue reading The FOMC Decision Is Today
<Click on graphic for larger image> <Click on graphic for larger image> CNBC – Wall St. sees rate hike in June: CNBC Fed Survey Yet, while forecasts for the 10-year yield came down with the sell-off, they have not rebounded. Treasury yields are seen rising from their current levels but the forecast remains muted. The… Continue reading Economists Forecast A Rate Hike In June, Odds Of A Recession Down
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Lisa Abramowicz: Central Banks’ Frankenstein Bonds Good luck trying to find a debt investor who views negative interest-rate policies in a positive light. More often than not, words like “scared,” “cautious” and “worrisome” are used to describe reaction to a distortion of markets that is defying conventional… Continue reading Negative Rates
Arbor Research – Peter Forbes: Implications of a Eurozone Economic Rebound With diverging monetary policy a major focus, financial markets watch for a potential recovery in Eurozone economic data. A rebound in the surprise index is likely and a reliable predictor of improving data relative to one-year averages. However, a look at past CESI rebounds… Continue reading Economic Growth In The Eurozone
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Seeking Alpha – Will Gold Continue Its Dominance Over Silver ETFs? The weakness in the global financial markets has helped precious metals, like gold and silver, to recover their sheen in 2016. Sluggish growth in China since the beginning of the year and… Continue reading A Look At Silver ETFs
<Click on chart for large image> The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Retail Sales Fell 0.1% in February January revised to a decrease on lower auto, gas sales “This year seems to have gotten off to an especially wobbly start in terms of the economy,” Michael O’Sullivan, president and chief operating officer at Ross Stores… Continue reading Retail Sales Falls Slightly
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Oil Producers Seek to Shore Up Crude Rally With Mid-April Summit Oil producers from OPEC and beyond are finalizing a plan to discuss freezing output at a meeting in Qatar in mid-April, the latest move in a campaign by financially-stricken crude exporters to shift the dynamics… Continue reading OPEC And Crude Oil Production
<Click on graphic for larger image> Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – Latest forecast: 1.9 percent — March 15, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 1.9 percent on March 15, down from 2.2 percent on March 9. The forecast for first-quarter… Continue reading GDP Update
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Tips and the US inflation conundrum Data suggest markets do not really believe in the Fed’s long-term target Wall Streeters who trade Tips, Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities, government bonds whose value does not erode with inflation, like to joke that the acronym in fact stands for… Continue reading US Inflation And The Fed’s Long-Term Inflation Target
The Financial Times – Monetary policy is not enough to beat deflation The case for governments to support stimulus is becoming clearer Monetary policymakers are on the defensive. After a decade in which central banks steered the global economy out of crisis, faith in their powers is waning. In the past week, the European Central… Continue reading Monetary Policy And Deflation
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