The Telegraph (UK) – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Saudis are going for the kill but the oil market is turning anyway The collapse of OPEC talks with Russia over the weekend makes absolutely no difference to the balance of supply and demand in the global oil markets. The putative freeze in crude output was political eyewash. Hardly… Continue reading Doha Post-Mortem
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Who Needs Buybacks? One S&P 500 Variant Just Rallied to a Record The S&P 500 total return index reaches all-time high Breadth is improving and equities’ link to oil is loosening The rallying U.S. stock market just pushed one version of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index… Continue reading Measures Of Stock Prices
<Click on chart for larger image> CNBC – By this measure, the S&P 500 is overvalued by 72% Are stocks, on the whole, too expensive or too cheap? There are about as many ways to answer that question as there are investors in the market. But based on one particular measure of market valuation, the… Continue reading Scary Stock Market Talk
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Lu Wang: The Hole at the Center of the Rally: S&P Margins in Decline Analysts see 1% slide in revenue leading to 9.5% drop in EPS Margin pressure building amid rising wages, low productivity Stocks are rising, the worst start to a year is a memory,… Continue reading More Scary Stock Market Talk
Figure 4 Total net new bank credit + Total net new issuance of bonds in the US (billions of $) <Click on graphic for larger image> VOX – US banks’ behaviour and bond issues after Lehman’s fall A substantial part of credit flows in the US occurs through bond issues in the capital market.3 The… Continue reading Credit Creation
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Reuters – Fed’s Rosengren takes another shot at pessimistic markets The Federal Reserve is set to hike interest rates more rapidly than investors currently expect, a top Fed official said on Monday, again pushing back on what he said was investors’ too pessimistic… Continue reading How Much Will The Fed Hike?
<Click on graphic for larger image> <Click on graphic for larger image> MarketWatch – Chinese investors dump U.S. stocks, but corporate buybacks offset losses U.S. corporate stock repurchases to total $450 billion in 2016 “With the U.S. economy expected to grow at a modest 2% pace and cash balances at high levels, firms are likely… Continue reading China And US Stocks
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – It’s All Suddenly Going Wrong in China’s $3 Trillion Bond Market Corporate borrowing costs are jumping from lowest since 2007 China firms canceled $9.4 billion of bond sales in April The unprecedented boom in China’s $3 trillion corporate bond market is starting to unravel. Spooked by… Continue reading All About China
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Early Warning Signs of Recession Flash Faintly in U.S. Jobs Data Fed’s labor market index down for three straight months Summers sees odds-on bet of recession within three years “I am a little concerned,” said 75-year-old Bob Funk, chief executive officer of Express Employment Professionals, which provides… Continue reading Problems In the Labor Market
Bloomberg Business – Alexandra Scaggs: Treasury Market’s Fastest Traders Don’t Like Trading Treasuries Sam Priyadarshi knew the Federal Reserve’s March statement was good for the Treasury market before he’d read a word of it. Just as the statement was released, Vanguard Group’s head fixed-income derivatives trader saw a chart of 10-year Treasury futures prices go… Continue reading The Rise Of Machines On Wall Street
The Financial Times – Bond guru Jeffrey Gundlach: Brexit not going to happen DoubleLine founder speaks out on Brexit defeat, a win by Trump and the end of negative interest rates “Trump is the unconstrained bond fund of the political arena,” Mr Gundlach says, referring to the newly-popular kind of fund whose manager does not… Continue reading Gundlach Speaks
MarketWatch – UBS chairman warns on negative interest rates UBS Group AG Chairman Axel Weber, the former president of Germany’s Bundesbank, warned that central banks in Europe and Japan are nearing the limits of monetary stimulus, weighing into an increasingly fractious debate in Germany over the European Central Bank’s easy-money policies. “We are now at… Continue reading Your Daily Warning About Negative Interest Rates