<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – What Is the ‘Magic Number’ for the Price of Oil? At $50 per barrel, falling Brent prices started to hurt rather than help shares and other risky assets As oil has risen again, those fears have receded. There is still little sign that Americans… Continue reading Stocks And The Price Of Crude Oil
<Click on graphic for larger image> Arbor Quantitative Analytics – Peter Forbes: Real Rate Differentials Matter Again Currency markets defied expectations in 2016 when the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank watched their currencies strengthen after their latest easing measures. The Yen in particular strengthened despite a weakening economy, capital outflows and the onset… Continue reading Currency And Negative Rates
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Argentina Opens Junk Bond Spree as Emerging Issuers Line Up Argentina’s blockbuster $16.5 billion bond sale is opening up the floodgates for junk-rated issuers in developing countries. The Latin American country’s return to global capital markets for the first time since its 2001 default brought high-yield… Continue reading Argentina’s Bond Sales
<Click on graphic for larger image> Arbor Quantitative Analytics – Economic Growth Still Not Favoring Additional Hikes in 2016 The YoY changes in inflation and now sentiment are failing to classify as a tightening cycle. Inflation, which we define as a composite of CPI, PPI, PCE, ISM business prices, and AHE, maintains a very low… Continue reading Probability Of A Rate Hike In 2016
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Europe’s Debt Chiefs Tailor Bond Sales as Banks Cool on Markets As bond markets get tougher for banks to make money, debt management chiefs across Europe have a new sales pitch: whatever you want, when you want. Primary dealers, the market-makers who buy securities directly from… Continue reading Europe’s Bond Sales
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Martin Wolf: Britain’s friends are right to fear Brexit Despite absurd attempts to deny this, nobody knows what would follow a vote to leave the EU How might future historians judge a British to decision to leave the EU in the referendum on June 23?… Continue reading Everyone Is Fearing Brexit
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Negative Rates Should Prompt German Action, not Angst The European Central Bank’s policy decision Thursday comes at a time of tension with Germany, its largest shareholder. German criticism of the ECB is not new, but the vehemence of recent attacks raises a difficult question: What happens… Continue reading Negative Rates
The Financial Times – US energy junk bonds rally on, even as oil falls Since touching a record high of 21 per cent in February, the average yield of US energy junk bonds has plummeted to 12.52 per cent this week, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indices, reflecting a lucrative rally, writes Joel… Continue reading Energy Junk Bonds Rally
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Housing Starts Fell to Lowest Level Since October Starts declined 8.8% in March from February; much of the slowdown was in the Midwest Housing was a bright spot in the U.S. economy in 2015, contributing more than a quarter of a percentage point… Continue reading Housing Starts Fall
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – What Oil Glut? Outages Put Supply, Demand Close to Balance In Iraq, the central government has said it stopped pumping around 150,000 barrels a day in March from the giant Kirkuk fields in the north following a dispute with an autonomous Kurdish authority that… Continue reading What Oil Glut?
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<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Hillary Clinton’s Lead Narrows Among Democratic Primary Voters, Poll Says Party’s front-runner outpolls potential opponent Donald Trump 50% to 39% Sen. Bernie Sanders has all but eliminated Hillary Clinton’s polling lead among Democratic voters nationwide, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has found,… Continue reading An Update On Election Betting, New York Primary Edition