<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Surprise: The Economy Is Looking Much Better The good news keeps coming for the U.S. economy, catching many forecasters by surprise and justifying the recent stock market rally. One closely watched Wall Street indicator, the Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index, is flashing newfound optimism… Continue reading Economic Data Surprising To The Upside
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – WSJ Survey: Half of Economists See No Fed Rate Increase Until December Half of the economists in a Wall Street Journal survey expect the Federal Reserve will leave short-term interest rates unchanged until December because of uncertainty over Brexit and the U.S. presidential election,… Continue reading Economists Time The Rate Hike
Fox Business – Fmr. Fed Chair Greenspan: Inflation is Starting to Rise Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is forecasting a long over-due inflation uptick. “I think we are on the edge now of a significant change in the global outlook. And it’s a very slow and very turgent but very persistent move from deflation… Continue reading Greenspan Sees Inflation Picking Up
The Financial Times – The bizarre logic behind record low yields and high-flying stocks Since the last S&P high, the sectors to fare best have been those most resistant to a recession. Minimum volatility stocks have outperformed, and so have high-yielding stocks seen as substitutes for bonds. Thus utilities, real estate and telecoms, all conservative… Continue reading The Stock Rally Everyone Hates
The Guardian – Up to 70% of people in developed countries ‘have seen incomes stagnate’ New report calculates that earnings did not rise for more than half a billion people between 2005 and 2014 Half a billion people in 25 of the west’s richest countries suffered from flat or falling pay packets in the decade… Continue reading Stagnant Income
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – The Housing Market Is Waving a Red Flag Almost nine years after the housing-market bust helped trigger the most recent recession, RealtyTrac senior vice president Daren Blomquist sees the industry waving a red flag. The same fervent speculation that abetted the housing bubble is showing up in… Continue reading Speculation In The Housing Market On The Rise
Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Greg Ip: Needed: A Contingency Plan for Secular Stagnation What if Larry Summers is right? More than two years ago, the Harvard economist and former U.S. Treasury secretary resurrected the Depression-era phrase “secular stagnation” to describe a chronic deficiency of investment relative to savings that has trapped the world in… Continue reading Combating Secular Stagnation
Average trade size in an S&P 500 stock is ~160 shares. Here’s how that number changed since 2003 pic.twitter.com/8uNwSb5PIg — Eric Scott Hunsader (@nanexllc) July 14, 2016 <Click on chart for larger image>
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<Click on chart for larger image> Barron’s – Randall W. Forsyth: Yes, a Fed Rate Hike May Come Sooner Than Later Surging stocks, plus strong jobs data, could ease Yellen & Co.’s concerns and lead to a July 27 statement surprise. Will new highs in stocks spur the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner… Continue reading Timing The Next Rate Hike
The Wall Street Journal – 35-Year-Old Bond Bull Is on Its Last Legs There is a limit to how negative yields can go before money becomes meaningless They have been saying it for 35 years. But after 3½ decades of stunning returns, the biggest bond bull market in history looks to be entering its final… Continue reading Differing Views On Interest Rates
The New York Times – Bank of England Holds Key Interest Rate Steady Despite Uncertainty Over ‘Brexit’ Despite the widespread uncertainty created by Britain’s vote last month to leave the European Union, the country’s central bank decided to hold its main interest rate steady, although it signaled that a potential cut could come next month… Continue reading Bank Of England Holds Interest Rates Steady