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An Election Update – Before The Conventions Begin

July 18, 2016

<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Stock Market’s Enduring Record of Calling Presidential Races Consistent with the historical precedent, Clinton’s prospects have mirrored fluctuations in the stock market for the last eight months, a period when the two lines moved with an 84 percent correlation, according to Bianco Research LLC. Using election… Continue reading An Election Update – Before The Conventions Begin

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Betting On Crude Oil

July 18, 2016

<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Oil Producers Prepare for Second-Half Slump as Rally Sputters Oil producers aren’t betting on the rally. After surviving two years of low prices, they’re gearing up for a third by buying protection against a renewed downturn. Laredo Petroleum Inc. said July 14 that it hedged more than… Continue reading Betting On Crude Oil

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Funding Markets Show Signs Of Strain

July 18, 2016

<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Libor Rises to 7-Yr High as Money Market Reforms Near (No Link) USD 3-mo. Libor rose to 0.6879% from 0.6791%, ICE data show, highest since May 2009, as remaining money market reforms are set to take effect Oct. 14 * “100-day money has been a lot more… Continue reading Funding Markets Show Signs Of Strain

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Gold’s Speculative Position

July 18, 2016

<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Gold’s Run Could Hit Roadblocks After three bearish years, gold’s 25% year-to-date price increase has pushed its long-term fans to predict a sustained bull run. Whether they’re right could depend on whether central bank action boosts inflation, which has historically been positive for gold.… Continue reading Gold’s Speculative Position

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Real Yields

July 18, 2016

The Wall Street Journal – Bonds Aren’t as Wretched an Investment as They Seem Why do so many bond investors feel nostalgic for the days when yields were negative (after inflation)? With bonds producing near-record-low levels of income worldwide, there’s never been a worse time to invest in government and corporate debt. You earn next… Continue reading Real Yields

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Active Management

July 18, 2016

<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Asset management: Actively failing Clients have imbibed the evidence of studies such as the latest annual Spiva survey from S&P, which shows that 83 per cent of US mutual funds and 86 per cent of European funds have underperformed the market over the past decade,… Continue reading Active Management

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Interpreting The Yield Curve

July 18, 2016

MarketWatch – Caroline Baum: Beware! A flattening yield curve still means something The usual inspiration for an inverted curve is excessive tightening on the part of the central bank to rein in inflation. Central bankers are among those who tend to ignore the warning signal when the curve inverts, so the economy falls into recession,… Continue reading Interpreting The Yield Curve

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The Devil’s In The Details For Brexit

July 18, 2016

The Financial Times – Wolfgang Munchau: How to make Brexit manageable We have moved beyond “Brexit means Brexit”. We know the new UK government is seeking a relationship with the EU, governed by a trade agreement. It does not want to join the European Economic Area — an extended sphere of the EU’s internal market…The… Continue reading The Devil’s In The Details For Brexit

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So Many Traders Only Know 0% Rates

July 18, 2016

This is great. 85% of Wall Street traders weren’t on Wall Street during the DotCom bubble. h/t @TheStalwart pic.twitter.com/x1fsSMkES2 — Rudolf E. Havenstein (@RudyHavenstein) May 30, 2015

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Helicopter Money At The BoJ

July 18, 2016

The Wall Street Journal – Japan and Helicopter Money: Fan Blades Aren’t Turning Just Yet For all the talk of cash being dropped from the sky, what the Bank of Japan does next is anyone’s guess, even if some investors seem to think otherwise. Much to Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda’s relief, the Japanese… Continue reading Helicopter Money At The BoJ

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Pensions’ Shortfalls

July 18, 2016

The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Pension Funding Levels to Deteriorate, Moody’s Says U.S. multiemployer pension plans, already short on cash, are likely to see funding levels deteriorate due to aging constituents, low interest rates and a sluggish global equity market, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report on Wednesday. The credit rating company examined… Continue reading Pensions’ Shortfalls

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Cartoons

July 18, 2016

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