Larry Summers – Disappointed by what came out of Jackson Hole I had high hopes for the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference. The conference was billed as a forum that would look at new approaches to the conduct of monetary policy—something that I have been urging as necessary given secular stagnation risks and the… Continue reading Criticizing The Jackson Hole Meeting
<Click on table for larger image> A Wealth Of Common Sense – Ben Carlson: How to Lie With Fed Statistics Using just 2008 as a starting point makes it look like all of the gains since then are Fed-induced. But look what happens when you change the starting date — the relationship doesn’t look quite as clear… Continue reading Statistics Are Not Always Honest
<Click on graphic for larger image> LPL Research – The Smallest Range in Five Decades Bloomberg noted today that going back 30 days, the S&P 500 has traded in a range of 1.5%, the smallest range since 1965. Taking a closer look at intraday moves, Friday marked the end of a record 17 straight days of… Continue reading Is The Stock Market Coiling?
Bloomberg.com – Draghi Silence Puts Numbers in Spotlight Before ECB Meeting Inflation, jobless reports for euro area are due this week ECB president has said policy decisions hinge on economic data Draghi didn’t attend this year’s gathering of central bankers and economists at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at the weekend, where Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said… Continue reading Draghi
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Big Oil’s Yuge Problem Big Oil just doesn’t seem to be as enamored with the ‘big’ thing as it once was. Another major project, Alaska LNG, has bitten the dust: The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that Exxon Mobil wants to sell its stake to… Continue reading Spending More To Get Less Oil Out Of The Ground
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Bloomberg.com – Mohamed El-Erian: How the Next U.S. Jobs Report Could Influence the Fed Most of the time, it would be very foolish to suggest that a single data release could determine a policy decision by the Federal Reserve. After all, Fed officials — board governors, regional presidents or senior staff members — pride themselves… Continue reading Why The FOMC Meeting Was Effectively Moved To This Friday (Payroll Report)
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Jason Zweig: Are Index Funds Eating the World? Over the past year, $310 billion has fled actively managed funds run by people who try (and often fail) to pick the best stocks and bonds. Meanwhile, $409 billion has poured into passive, or index, funds that… Continue reading More On The Idea Of Index Funds Becoming Too Popular
Factset – Earnings Insight For August 26, 2016 Earnings Scorecard: With 98 % of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings to date for Q2 2016, 71% have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 53% have reported sales above the mean estimate. Earnings Growth: For Q2 2016, the blended earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -3.2%. The second quarter marks the first time the index has… Continue reading An Earnings Update
MarketWatch.com – Here’s what the Fed’s rate should be, using rule footnoted in Yellen speech .. Now, to the formula: it involves four variables: so-called R-star, which is the longer-run normal value of the federal funds rate adjusted for inflation; the four-quarter moving average of core PCE inflation; the FOMC’s target for inflation; the unemployment rate and… Continue reading Gauging The Fed Funds Rate
The Wall Street Journal – Jon Hilsenrath: Janet Yellen Lays Out Tools for Next Recession Fight When recession hits again, the Federal Reserve could turn back to unconventional programs it used with aggression in the last crisis, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Friday in taking stock of the central bank’s long-run plans for managing… Continue reading How Will The Fed Fight The Next Recession?
Federal Reserve Bank Of New York – Nowcasting Report The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% for 2016:Q3, slightly lower than in the previous week.