<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Oil Discoveries at 70-Year Low Signal Supply Shortfall Ahead Explorers in 2015 discovered only about a tenth as much oil as they have annually on average since 1960. This year, they’ll probably find even less, spurring new fears about their ability to meet future demand. With oil prices down by more… Continue reading New Oil Discoveries At A 70-Year Low
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Comment On September 1, 2016 at 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 BST) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Join us Thursday as we discuss what the Fed will do at their next FOMC meeting, why Friday’s payroll… Continue reading What To Expect From The FOMC In The Wake Of Jackson Hole
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment The green bars above show the market’s track record in predicting FOMC hikes/cuts over the last 86 meetings since Bernanke and Yellen were in charge. Note that within 10 days of a meeting, the market has correctly predicted the outcome of all 86 meetings since 2006. The blue line… Continue reading Fed Funds’ Track Record At Predicting Hikes
The Wall Street Journal – David Malpass: More Fed Bond Purchases Are the Wrong Answer The Jackson Hole meeting defended the status quo, despite slow growth and meager wage gains. Last week’s Jackson Hole conference of central bankers defended the status quo in monetary policy despite disappointing economic results. Friday’s GDP report revised second-quarter growth down… Continue reading Should The Fed Do More QE?
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Bazookas! Sinks! Aggressive Doves! Nobody Loves Silly Metaphors More Than Central Bankers Since the crisis, an analysis of the Factiva media database shows, references in monetary-policy articles and blogs to artillery-related words—including bazookas, powder and firing blanks—rose to 7,300 in 2015 from 4,600 in 2010,… Continue reading Describing The Fed
<Click on graphic for larger image> Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland – Simple Monetary Policy Rules The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides federal funds rates from seven simple monetary policy rules based on three sets of forecasts for economic conditions, along with tools to help you customize your own simple policy rule. Simple monetary policy rules typically… Continue reading Monetary Rules
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Traders Bet Dollar Will Keep Climbing The U.S. currency hit its highest level in three weeks on Monday, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve could increase short-term interest rates as soon as next month Investors are dusting off the rising-dollar playbook. The U.S. currency hit… Continue reading Dollar Strength?
The Wall Street Journal – When Economic Doomsayers Stumble: Cautionary Tales From Brexit, Grexit and U.S. Budget Battles It’s early, but data so far suggest the British decision to leave the European Union could be another example of a recurring phenomenon: expert predictions of dire consequences to political decisions that end up proving overheated. Economists are good… Continue reading Doom & Gloom
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Central Banks May Need to Start Thinking About Losing Weight Picture for a moment the concept of a lean central bank. No, not Janet Yellen or Mario Draghi out doing Pilates, but rather the thought that almost a decade after the Great Recession, central banks ought to… Continue reading The BoJ Is About To Overtake The Fed In The Race To Infinity
Bloomberg Business – Fed Experience Shows QE Curbs Yield Outlook, ECB Paper Finds Fed’s non-standard policy effects ‘economically important’ The paper comes less than two weeks before the ECB’s Governing Council meets to decide whether to adjust its own unconventional policies in response to the fallout from the U.K. decision to quit the European Union. Officials… Continue reading Measuring QE
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Mark Gilbert: One Chart Shows What Investors Are Dreaming About Hence, there’s increasing chatter about the prospect of fiscal action from governments, which is shorthand for borrowing money to spend on infrastructure projects, thereby creating jobs, boosting growth and investing in the future. The U.S., the U.K.,… Continue reading Fiscal Stimulus