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January 31, 2025
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy
Today's topics include Timiraos says Fed in a "wait & see" period, will there be cuts in 2024?, goods deficit hits new record, understanding Fedspeak, Cohen still betting on AI, Goldman argues buy tech on fundamentals, retail investors buy Nvidia's massive dip, and Softbank eyeing OpenAI investment
Today's topics include the Fed will keep its options open today, could the Fed's next move be a rate hike?, the problems with FOMC forward guidance, more on Monday's selloff, timing the end of QT, quantifying tariffs' effects on the economy, DeepSeek may have used OpenAI to build its model, and OPEC's response to Trump
The era of TINA (“There is No Alternative”) is over. Stocks will compete with bonds and cash over the next several years.
Join us today, January 28, for our next conference call.
Today's topics include this is what happens in a hyper-concentrated market, is Deepseek panic overblown?, look for Fed to remain flexible at this week's meeting, meet the new FOMC voters, tariffs & inflation expectations, more on deportations' effect on economy, the dollar, and the housing market
Q4 2024 earnings season is starting to heat up. Growth is expected to be well below recent quarters, however expectations for previous quarters were also underestimated before earnings season. Q4 growth may follow a similar trend.
Today's topics include is DeepSeek a black swan event for AI?, equity risk premium turns negative for first time since 2002, greater volatility & the case for active management, the treasury general account, quantifying the effect of immigration/deportations, carry trades become less attractive, turning the 60/40 portfolio upside down, and deglobalization