Long-term rates started rising right after the Fed started cutting the funds rate, similar to what happened when the Fed cut rates before 1981. Powell needs to explain why this is not a signal of a policy mistake. Otherwise, yields will continue to climb until the Fed ends the cutting campaign.
Today's topics include Timiraos cements a cut followed by a pause, why is the Fed even cutting rates?, the Fed needs to continue cutting!, everyone is bullish on stocks!, the latest BofA survey, looking for signs of funding strain, yen approaching danger zone, and fiscally speaking
Today's topics include the importance of forward guidance this week, bonds' bad week, the 10-year/3-month yield curve uninverts, dynamic pricing's effect on inflation, treasury policy & the basis trade, time for a santa rally in stocks?, volatility in 2025, and crypto regulation
Today's topics include more on FOMC expectations next year, what to expect from stocks in 2025, bad breadth, breaking down wages & inflation by income, the deficit is only accelerating in 2025, the Mag Seven are bigger than all economies except the U.S. & China, trading volumes get a Trump bump, and Chinese yields continue to plummet.
By almost any measure, traders have rarely been this exuberant about the stock market.
Official TIC data shows China has steadily shed their exposure to the dollar by reducing Treasury holdings over the past decade. However, some of their holdings are likely being held in other custodial countries.
The market continues to rally on the backs of a select few stocks in the S&P 500.
The majority of gains in bitcoin since the pandemic came outside of U.S. trading hours.
Checking on mobility and transit in the United States since the COVID-19 pandemic.