Today's topics include part one of the Treasury's quarterly refunding statement, timing the rate cuts, rate cuts are a mixed bag for stocks, the health of the U.S. consumer, big tech's big week, dissecting bubbles, labor market metrics to watch, and the growth of bond ETFs
We are a few weeks into Q2 2024 earnings season. Expectations for Q2 have started to move higher, even as high-profile companies miss projections.
Today's topics include Timiraos weighs in on a September rate cut, how fast might the Fed cut rates?, data dependent to a fault, inflation seasonality, stocks' 2% drop last week, betting on rate cuts, how much cash can the TGA hold?, more on stocks' rotation, and hedge funds sour on gasoline
Today's topics include timing the rate cut, an eye on spending among the wealthy, more on stock market concentration, the rotation to small cap stocks, Trump's plan for a weaker dollar, and million dollar starter homes
Only 35% of the stocks in the S&P 500 beat the index's return over the past year, one of the lowest percentages in at least four decades.
Although traders are pricing in near 100% odds of a September rate cut, their predictive ability this far out makes this far from a done deal.
Markets are roaring ahead as financial conditions are measured as easy. Lowering rates in this environment will only push financial markets to even easier, even to outright bubble conditions.
It is no secret that investors have been riding the bullish wave in stocks for quite some time. Price action in the last few days may have dented that enthusiasm, but the charts below quantify this bullishness for historical perspective. Note the surveys below were completed on July 23 and July 19, before the big… <a class="more-link" href="https://www.biancoresearch.com/stock-sentiment-in-rarified-air/">Continue reading <span class="screen-reader-text">Stock Sentiment in Rarified Air</span></a>
Bullish option trading strategies accelerated significantly as the rotation to small caps took hold.