The Wall Street Journal – House to Act on Bill to Target ‘Position Limits’ Rules on Commodities Trading Proposed legislation would cap size of trading positions firms could take in more than two dozen core commodity contracts House Republicans are poised to approve legislation making it harder for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to complete… Continue reading Capping The Size Of Futures Positions
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The Wall Street Journal – Job Growth Slows in December; Wages Post Best Gain Since 2009 U.S. added 156,000 jobs last month, while jobless rate ticked up to 4.7% Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 156,000 in December from the prior month, a slowdown from November’s more robust gain, the Labor Department said Friday. The unemployment… Continue reading More On The Jobs Report
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Investors Betting Strongest Junk-Bond Rally in Years Has Legs Better earnings among risky companies and a slowdown of defaults have given junk-bond investors cause for optimism despite a big decline in yields An uptick in earnings among riskier U.S. companies is bolstering investor confidence… Continue reading Junk Bonds
Illinois News Network – Small business advocate survey shows high hopes for business with Trump administration With America’s small business owner confidence soaring after the election, Illinois’ small business advocates said they’re waiting for the same effect in Illinois. Shortly after Donald Trump won the presidency in November, the National Federation of Independent Business took… Continue reading Rising Inflation Not Necessarily a Boost for Risk Assets
The Financial Times – Bearish bets against US Treasuries climb to new record The amount of money making bets that US Treasuries will fall in value climbed to a new record high over the last week in a wager that faster US economic growth and higher inflation will weigh further on government bond prices. So-called… Continue reading Safety Shunned Unlike Anytime in Recent History
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – China Foreign-Exchange Reserves Continue Drop Reserves fall to lowest levels in nearly six years, testing central bank’s resolve to stabilize the yuan China’s foreign-exchange reserves fell to the lowest level in nearly six years last month, testing the central bank’s resolve to control the… Continue reading The Costs Of Manipulating A Currency
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Wall Street Is Starting to Get Nervous About All the Money Pouring Into U.S. Stocks How long can this continue? Everything changed in November. After President-elect Donald Trump won the election, markets began a decisive shift in essentially all asset classes. Suddenly, everything from bank stocks to emerging-market bonds staged decisive price… Continue reading Asset Flows Since The Election
Click on chart for larger image> Comment As the purple line in the chart above shows, the fed funds futures market is not pricing in more than a 50% chance of a hike until this June. The Wall Street Journal – Fed Officials Say More Rate Rises Coming Several Federal Reserve officials, in their first… Continue reading Timing The Rate Hikes Via Fedspeak
Fact Set – Few S&P 500 Companies Issued Negative Guidance for Q4 2016 For the fourth quarter of 2016, 77 companies in the S&P 500 have issued negative EPS guidance, which is below the number for Q3 2016 (82) and below the five-year average (83). If 77 is the final number for the quarter, it will… Continue reading An Earnings Update – Q4 Reporting Starts This Week
Bloomberg.com – Wall Street’s Most Outspoken Stock Bull Reverses, Now Top Bear Thomas Lee of Fundstrat sees S&P 500 finishing 2017 at 2,275 Cites policy risk, flatter yield curve as first-half headwinds Wall Street’s most vocal champion on U.S. stocks over the past two years is now its biggest bear. Thomas Lee, managing partner and… Continue reading Bulls vs. Bears
Bloomberg.com – Danielle DiMartino Booth: Rebuild the Fed From the Bottom Up Though many proposals have been floated in recent years, the call to eradicate the Fed altogether is neither reasonable nor wise. That would only deny the risks inherent in globalized financial markets, leaving the U.S. economy open to attack. At the same time,… Continue reading Arguing For A Single Mandate Fed