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Eurozone Economic Surprises on a Roll

January 10, 2017

The Wall Street Journal – Surprise: It Might Be Time to Sell, Especially in Europe The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is a strong contrarian indicator that is worth watching right nowEconomists following Europe have underestimated the economy lately. Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index for Europe recently touched the highest level since 2011. If economists grow more optimistic,… Continue reading Eurozone Economic Surprises on a Roll

Newsclips

The Problem With Forecasts

January 10, 2017

Weather forecaster Michael Fish famously reassured BBC viewers in 1987 that no hurricane was headed for Britain. He was spectacularly wrong. The Wall Street Journal – Three Economists Walk Into a Bar Investors who put too much stock in economic forecasts aren’t likely to be laughing for long Why did God create economists? To make… Continue reading The Problem With Forecasts

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Newsclips

Active Management Stumbling During Improving Conditions

January 10, 2017

The Financial Times – Hedge fund launches heading for eight-year low Fund closures are also set to be the highest since 2008 For an entrepreneurial industry built on the reputation of individual traders and their recent track records, a steady flow of new launches and, conversely, closures, is normal. But a lack of ready funding, an increase… Continue reading Active Management Stumbling During Improving Conditions

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The Trump Effect?

January 10, 2017

Bloomberg.com – U.S. Small-Business Optimism Index Surges by Most Since 1980 NFIB gauge jumps to 105.8 in month after presidential election Expectations for business conditions are highest since 2002 Optimism among America’s small businesses soared in December by the most since 1980 as expectations about the economy’s prospects improved dramatically in the aftermath of the presidential… Continue reading The Trump Effect?

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Newsclips

Time To Sell The Trump Rally?

January 10, 2017

<Click on graphic for larger image> MarketWatch – If you bought the Trump rumor, now it’s time to sell the news Skepticism among stock investors before the election has now turned to optimism — perhaps too much The next two months will show why we should “buy the rumor, sell the news.”  The “rumor” in this… Continue reading Time To Sell The Trump Rally?

Newsclips

GAAP v Anti-GAAP

January 10, 2017

<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Anti-GAAP’ reporting proves a growing menace Industry watchdog SEC looking at custom reporting to see if enforcement action needed Some call it “custom reporting”, others “anti-GAAP”. Either way, it’s a menace.  The SEC is normally happy to grant companies a little leeway, if they think a… Continue reading GAAP v Anti-GAAP

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Newsclips

Will The Fed Shrink Its Balance Sheet?

January 10, 2017

<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Fed official eyes balance sheet as US inflation picks up Rosengren says central bank could reduce $4tn securities stockpile to steer economy The Federal Reserve should be ready to consider reducing the size of its balance sheet as part of its efforts to prevent overheating in… Continue reading Will The Fed Shrink Its Balance Sheet?

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The Pound Sinks

January 10, 2017

<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Pound dips to lowest level since October on May’s Brexit comment Prime minister dismisses idea that UK could keep ‘bits’ of EU membership The pound was the biggest faller on G7 foreign exchange markets on Monday, sliding to its lowest level against the dollar since… Continue reading The Pound Sinks

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Newsclips

Another Use For Bitcoin

January 10, 2017

<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Bitcoin, PayPal Used to Finance Terrorism, Indonesian Agency Says Syrian-based Indonesian who police say is involved with Islamic State and has helped coordinate attacks back home is among the alleged donors Islamic militants based in the Middle East used bitcoin and online-payment services such as… Continue reading Another Use For Bitcoin

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The Populist Movement

January 10, 2017

The Wall Street Journal – Greg Ip: We Are Not the World From Brexit to Trump to the rise of nationalist parties across Europe, the old division between left and right is giving way to a battle between self-styled patriots and confounded globalists Late on a Sunday evening a little more than a year ago,… Continue reading The Populist Movement

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Newsclips

Baby Boomers & The Bond Market

January 10, 2017

<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Don’t Worry Bond Investors, Baby Boomers Have Got Your Back HSBC report sees aging population supporting demand for bonds Investors mourning the end of a 30-year bull market in U.S. Treasuries can take solace from demographics: thanks to the aging population there’s a limit to how high… Continue reading Baby Boomers & The Bond Market

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Stress On The Yuan

January 10, 2017

<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Why Beijing’s Grip on the Yuan Is Becoming Tenuous Even a slight loss of currency control to markets is still not within Beijing’s reality. After spending a year trying to communicate with markets about its currency-management process, Beijing is resorting to what it knows… Continue reading Stress On The Yuan