<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations at 19-Month High, Fed Says U.S. households’ expectations for consumer price inflation rose to the highest level since mid-2015, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey. The median survey respondent reported an expected inflation rate last month of 2.9 percent… Continue reading Rising Inflation Expectations
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – David Ader: A Top Bond Strategist Looks at Stocks and Recoils The equity gurus cite various broad perspectives such as price-to-earnings ratios on the S&P 500, both trailing and forward-looking, and variations on that theme. I like to look at the offbeat, noting that it might raise… Continue reading More Measures Of Stocks Being Overextended
Linkedin – Trump’s Next Shake Up: The Fed Get ready for the Trump administration’s next shakeup…the Federal Reserve. As Fed Chair Janet Yellen heads into her semi-annual testimony before Congress, she knows the score–this is probably the penultimate appearance at what is likely to be a historically short term for a Fed Chair. Yellen’s term as… Continue reading Yellen vs. Trump
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The Reflation Trade – Real Growth or Inflation A transcript of the February 9, 2017 conference call. Handout Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/020917.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Webcast <Click on image to view video>
Comment Last week we showed how the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could be converted into basis point hikes or cuts. We concluded that the Fed’s bloated balance sheet, combined with a nominal funds rate of 0.75%, pushes the “accomodative funds rate” to -1.73%. Below we take our analysis one step further by examining global… Continue reading Central Bank Balance Sheets Dictating Magnitude of Returns
Fact Set – Earnings Insight For February 10, 2017 As of today (with 71% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for Q4 2016), 67% of S&P 500 companies have beat the mean EPS estimate and 52% of S&P 500 companies have beat the mean sales estimate. Of the 317 S&P 500… Continue reading An Earnings Update
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Financial Times – Market questions: will the respite for French bonds last? Why are analysts pondering ‘Brexit 2.0’ and what will Janet Yellen tell Congress? Traders remain nervous after they failed to predict the two biggest political shocks of 2016, the UK’s Brexit vote and the election of… Continue reading French Elections And French Bonds
The Wall Street Journal – Daniel Tarullo, Federal Reserve Regulatory Point Man, to Resign Resignation gives Trump a new opening to reshape banking regulation Daniel Tarullo, the Federal Reserve’s regulatory point man since 2009, will resign this spring, the central bank said Friday. Mr. Tarullo’s brief resignation letter to President Donald Trump didn’t give a reason… Continue reading What Does Tarullo’s Resignation Mean For The FOMC?
Financial Times – Donald Trump’s anger at Asian currency manipulators misses target Evidence suggests Taiwan and South Korea, not China and Japan, are the worst offenders“Every other country lives on devaluation,” said Mr Trump after meeting with US motor industry executives. “You look at what China’s doing, you look at what Japan has done over… Continue reading Spotlight on Currency Manipulators
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Tim Duy: It’s Way Too Early for the Fed to Consider a March Rate Increase The countdown to the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting in mid-March has begun, and so have the pleadings of some central bank officials desperately trying to suggest the meeting is “live.” Market… Continue reading Timing The Next Rate Hike
The Wall Street Journal – Former Fed Staffer Says Central Bank Is Under the Thumb of Academics Danielle DiMartino Booth, who worked at the Dallas Fed, accuses the central bank of ‘hubris and myopia’ in her new book The Federal Reserve is dominated by academics who don’t know how finance and the economy really work,… Continue reading Inside The Fed