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Bonds and Equities Disagreeing on Pace of Economic Growth
April 11, 2017
Comment The NFIB’s Uncertainty Index reported today for March remains well above its highest since prior to Trump’s election. However, the bond markets’ lack of volatility may be more a result of increased certainty over future growth. The arrival of Trump greatly raised the dispersion of growth expectations by economists, consumers, and business. But these… Continue reading Bonds and Equities Disagreeing on Pace of Economic Growth
Newsclips
More Bond Bears
April 11, 2017
Bloomberg.com – Why Bond Bears Look Poised to Come Out of Hibernation…Again Four arguments in favor of higher U.S. Treasury yields Fed’s balance sheet, positive data, better yield, growth A springtime for shorts? Besieged Treasury bears may finally be set for a winning streak in the world’s largest bond market. Strategists are citing an under-pricing of… Continue reading More Bond Bears
Newsclips
The French Election
April 11, 2017
The Wall Street Journal – France’s Volatile Presidential Race Puts Far-Left Crusader in the Mix Jean-Luc Mélenchon gets a late surge in polls less than two weeks before voting gets under way Far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, campaigning as an antiglobalist champion of a forgotten working class, has surged into contention in France’s presidential election, transforming the… Continue reading The French Election
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More On Last Week’s Payroll Report
April 11, 2017
Tim Duy’s Fed Watch – Solid Employment Report Labor markets were generally solid in March, with nothing by itself to dissuade the Fed from its current path. We should be watching for the Fed reaction to the decline in the unemployment rate, assuming it persists in the coming months. Could be dovish if the Fed lowers… Continue reading More On Last Week’s Payroll Report
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Active Bond Managers Beating Passive
April 11, 2017
The Financial Times – Active bond fund performance trumps passive funds, Pimco data show Pimco, the (active) bond manager, took a swipe at the trend towards passive management on Monday with a new report showing active fixed income funds tend to outperform over medium time horizons. The manager behind two of the biggest three US… Continue reading Active Bond Managers Beating Passive
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China Choosing Control Over Flexibility
April 11, 2017
Financial Times – Renminbi globalisation gauge slumps to three-year low Globalisation of the renminbi – a key long-term goal for Beijing – is at its lowest point in three years as offshore dealing in the Chinese currency continues to shrink. Standard Chartered’s analysts track offshore activity involving the currency, and their measure fell in February to… Continue reading China Choosing Control Over Flexibility
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Could Higher Rates Be Bad For Banks?
April 11, 2017
Bloomberg Business – Skepticism Grows About Higher Fed Rates Helping Banks’ Margins When the Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates last month, it took North Carolina lender BB&T Corp. less than an hour to announce it was passing that cost along to borrowers. Depositors, however, have yet to see the benefit. For many investors, such discipline means… Continue reading Could Higher Rates Be Bad For Banks?
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The Retail Meltdown
April 11, 2017
The Atlantic – What in the World Is Causing the Retail Meltdown of 2017? In the middle of an economic recovery, hundreds of shops and malls are shuttering. The reasons why go far beyond Amazon. From rural strip-malls to Manhattan’s avenues, it has been a disastrous two years for retail. There have been nine retail… Continue reading The Retail Meltdown
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Yellen Speaks
April 11, 2017
Bloomberg.com – Yellen Says Fed’s Focus Has Shifted to Holding Growth Gains Fed trying to give economy ‘some gas,’ but not too much She sees economy continuing to grow at moderate pace Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. central bank’s task has shifted from a post-crisis exercise of healing the economy to one… Continue reading Yellen Speaks
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High Yield Fixated on Oil
April 11, 2017
Bloomberg – Junk-Bond Investors Can’t Make Up Their Mind About Oil Prices Correlation between high-yield debt and crude prices returns At the start of this year, credit investors undertook a conscious uncoupling from oil prices. As the cost of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate leaped in the wake of the production cut agreement announced by… Continue reading High Yield Fixated on Oil
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A Seminal Moment In Japan?
April 11, 2017
Bloomberg.com – Toshiba Warns of Its Ability to Continue as Going Concern The conglomerate is grappling with Westinghouse-unit losses Toshiba’s been unable to get auditors to sign off on results Toshiba Corp., the 142-year-old conglomerate, warned on Tuesday it may not be able to continue as a going concern as it grapples with billions of… Continue reading A Seminal Moment In Japan?