FiveThirtyEight – (April 8, 2017) Harry Enten: Will Trump Benefit From A ‘Rally Around The Flag’ Effect After The Syria Airstrike? Most foreign policy entanglements do not result in a “rally around the flag” event — when a president’s popularity jumps because Americans rally behind their commander-in-chief. That’s according to a 2001 study by William Baker… Continue reading Trump’s Approval Rating Gets No Bounce
Of Dollars & Data – Just Keep Buying This is the investing mantra that can change your life. These 3 words can make you rich. What I am talking about is the continual purchase of a diverse set of income producing assets. I am not talking about when to buy or how much to buy,… Continue reading Don’t Worry About Buying Overvalued Stocks If Holding Long-Term
Bloomberg Gadfly – Marcus Ashworth: France’s Bond Roller-Coaster French President Francois Hollande isn’t the only one starting to fear his successor will be decided in a run-off between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon. With 40 percent of voters still undecided, and four candidates polling within six percentage points of each other, bond investors are getting concerned… Continue reading The French Election And The Bond Market
The Financial Times – Stretched valuations warning is key for US earnings US earnings season begins in earnest on Thursday as three big banks disclose their quarterly figures, in what could be a critical juncture for US stocks that are trading at valuations many investors consider to be stretched. Analysts expect profits for companies listed on… Continue reading More On Earnings
Bloomberg Business – Why the Fed Might Have to ‘Live’ With a Large Balance Sheet In considering balance sheet normalization, the Fed may first look to acknowledge how recent market trends set in motion by the Treasury would work in reverse — and how global financial markets would react if the Fed added to those pressures… Continue reading Cross-Currency Basis Spreads And The Fed’s Balance Sheet
Reuters – Trump’s message to bankers: Wall Street reform rules may be eliminated President Donald Trump told a group of chief executives on Tuesday that his administration was revamping the Wall Street reform law known as Dodd-Frank and might eliminate the rules and replace them with “something else.” At the beginning of his administration, Trump ordered… Continue reading Trump Sends A Message To Wall Street
FT Alphaville – Some striking admissions about repo markets from the BIS Some central banks may want “to engage more actively in securities lending” to offset volatility in the $12tn global repo market, which is increasing around the end of quarterly reporting periods, the influential Bank for International has warned. This, to put it bluntly, is… Continue reading The Repo Market
The Wall Street Journal – Joe Ricketts: The Fed Could Use Less Book Learning and More Street Smarts Academic economists are fine, but business leaders and bankers would bring an important perspective. Central banking, in other words, is now dominated by academics. And while I don’t blame them for it, academics by their nature come… Continue reading Street Smarts vs. Book Smarts At The Fed
FT Alphaville – NY Fed research implies small business expectations are mostly worthless One of the funny consequences of America’s presidential election was a massive spike in the “small business optimism index” published by the National Federation of Independent Businesses: The question is whether this will have any predictive power for business investment, hiring, sales,… Continue reading Is The Small Business Optimism Index Worthless?
Bloomberg View – Ben Emons: Currency Manipulation Has Another Meaning for Traders Politicians like to throw around the phrase “currency manipulation” when they feel that some other nation has developed an unfair trade advantage by way of an artificially weak exchange rate. In the currency markets, though, it has a more benign meaning and can help… Continue reading Currency Manipulation
The Financial Times – When it comes to investing, human stupidity beats AI Warren Buffett, arguably the most successful investor of all, has over decades repeatedly explained his technique to the wider world. Not only does he tell us how and why he does what he does, but thanks to US regulatory requirements, anyone can see… Continue reading AI vs. Human Investors
Barron’s – Fake Investment News Could Be Here to Stay The Securities and Exchange Commission is trying to rid the nation of phony stock stories. It’s safe to say that the agency has a steep climb ahead of it. On Monday, the SEC announced that it is cracking down on stock promotion schemes that played out… Continue reading Fake News In The Financial Sector