CNBC – The Fed is talking more than ever before FOMC participants are on pace to deliver a record number of speeches this year. If it feels like Federal Reserve members are speaking more, that’s because they are.Federal Open Market Committee participants have consistently delivered more speeches each year since the mid-1990s, according to Deutsche Bank’s… Continue reading The Fed Is Talking Up A Storm
Bloomberg Business – Pimco to BlackRock Pile Into `Fragile Five’ Post-Taper Tantrum Morgan Stanley coined the moniker in 2013 for countries with high external funding needs amid concern that borrowing costs were set to surge as the Federal Reserve pulled back on its $70-billion-a-month bond and mortgage-backed securities program. The reality never matched the fears, creating… Continue reading The “Fragile Five” Currencies
Bloomberg View – Gary Shilling: The Trump Trade Arrived Several Years Too Soon Fiscal stimulus, if it comes, will take two to three years before it spurs the economy. I remain convinced that massive fiscal stimuli are in the cards. It’s needed to restore rapid economic growth, spur income rises and assuage voters, but it will… Continue reading Why The Trump Trade Arrived Too Early
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Comment On May 11, 2017 at 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 BST) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Now that the French election has passed, the markets’ attention will once again turn to the Federal Reserve. We… Continue reading Understanding The Fed’s Balance Sheet
Comment The chart below shows expectations using economic growth data for balance sheet reduction. Our own estimates are in orange and the Federal Reserve’s are in red. We use changes in major economic data releases to forecast the level of the balance sheet trained on data from 2009 to current. Current economic growth indicates total… Continue reading Balance Sheet Alters Equity Markets’ Response to Economic Growth
The Financial Times – Less is more when it comes to Federal Reserve policy Caution is the best response to recent US economic data So the next couple of years are likely to see slower GDP growth and possibly a tendency to rising inflation. What does this mean for monetary policy? The assumption manifest in the… Continue reading The Fed Focuses On The Short-Term And Models
Bloomberg – VIX Closes at Lowest Since 1993 as Trance Deepens in Market French election win for Macron removes latest market danger Volatility in the U.S. equity market has dissipated as stock investors whistled past geopolitical unknowns from populist politics to heightened threats from North Korea. While trade agreements, tax reform and the future of financial… Continue reading The Disappearing Act of Volatility
Comment Jim Bianco was on CNBC yesterday with Rick Santelli discussing the markets. To view the interview, click on the image above. To view any of our recent interviews, click here. MarketWatch.com – Bubble? Pfft … how about Dow 150,000? And with all that renewed optimism comes some wild — really wild — speculation from author… Continue reading Talking Markets
The Financial Times – Picking right stocks no easier with greater levels of information Finance believes more is always better than less when it comes to decision making But is having more information, more analysis and more opinion actually as helpful as we might think? Mr Montier argued back in 2005 that investors were prone… Continue reading Stock Picking
Bloomberg View – Tim Duy: The Fed Is on the Right Side of Its ‘Transitory’ Bet Despite the soft first-quarter economic data, investors should expect another interest-rate increase in June. The Fed is betting that residual seasonal adjustment issues negatively impacted the first-quarter gross domestic product and that the data does not reflect the true pace… Continue reading June Rate Hike