Comment On May 11, 2017 at 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 BST) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Now that the French election has passed, the markets’ attention will once again turn to the Federal Reserve. We… Continue reading Understanding The Fed’s Balance Sheet
OPEN U.S. Talking Q1 2017 Earnings – A Great Quarter! Comment Welcome to our new product, Net Positions. It is a short webcast explaining some of our recurring themes and ideas. We hope to make this a regular product available to those who subscribe to our conference calls. In our latest webcast, Jim… Continue reading Talking Q1 2017 Earnings – A Great Quarter!
The Wall Street Journal – The $9 Trillion Question: What Happens When Central Banks Stop Buying Bonds? Central banks have been the world’s biggest buyers of government bonds and may soon turn into sellers Central banks have been the world’s biggest buyers of government bonds and may soon turn into sellers—a tidal shift for global markets.… Continue reading Sovereigns Becoming Increasingly Attached to Central Bank Balance Sheets
Bloomberg – Gundlach Says Short the S&P 500 and Buy Emerging Market ETF DoubleLine’s chief says higher rates may not lift dollar DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach recommends shorting the S&P 500 Index and going long on emerging market stocks despite conventional wisdom that rising U.S. rates will lead to a stronger dollar. Specifically, Gundlach recommended wagering… Continue reading Emerging Markets and a Weaker U.S. Dollar
The Wall Street Journal – Investors Pull Cash From U.S. Stocks at Fastest Pace in Years, Betting on Europe Money going into U.S. stocks is at nine-year low, while inflows into European funds hit five-year highs Investors are pulling money out of the U.S. stock market at one of the highest rates in years, moving billions… Continue reading Investor Flows Chasing Eurozone Growth
Comment When looking at the chart above, remember the Fed already hiked once this year. So when the green line above shows an expectation of 2.6 hikes this year, that is 1.6 more hikes by year-end. Duy mentions pressure is building on the Fed in the story below, but that pressure is not coming from… Continue reading How Fast Should The Fed Raise Rates?
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – Latest forecast: 3.6 percent — May 9, 2017 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.6 percent on May 9, down from 4.2 percent on May 4. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth and real… Continue reading GDPNow Falls
EIA.gov – New pipeline infrastructure should accommodate expected rise in Permian oil production Pipeline infrastructure in the Permian is now better equipped to handle new production than it was in 2014. Several pipelines that came online to accommodate rising Permian production in recent years, such as Magellan’s BridgeTex pipeline, Sunoco Logistics’ Permian Express pipeline, and… Continue reading U.S. Pipelines And Oil Production
The Financial Times – Greek bonds keep on smashing post-bailout records Behold the great rally in Greek government bonds. The yield on Greece’s most traded 10-year bond has hit its lowest since the country underwent a private sector bond restructuring nearly five years ago as investors bet Athens’ latest bailout breakthrough can finally pave the… Continue reading Greek Yields Fall To Their Lowest Levels Since 2012
Conclusion So, the takeaway, again, is the balance sheet matters. The funds rate is way below one percent. It’s more like one and a half. When you factor in the balance sheet, which you have to, it matters. I jokingly said if the balance sheet doesn’t matter, then why doesn’t Trump kick out Yellen. I’m kind of… Continue reading Conclusion And Q&A From Our May 11, 2017 Conference Call
MarketWatch – Caroline Baum: The bond market didn’t get the memo That isn’t to say that long-term yields won’t rise further or experience intermittent spikes, be it from inflation scares, increased Treasury debt issuance or competition from higher-yielding safe assets. But the performance of long-term yields to date raises questions about forecasts of “considerable upward pressure”… Continue reading The Bond Market Is In Its Own Little World
The Financial Times – Appetite returns for riskier US corporate debt Riskier US corporate debt regained some of its footing on Tuesday, with a number of bond sales expected over the coming days despite the weight of falling oil prices. At least 10 speculatively rated groups — companies deemed riskier than their investment-grade counterparts by the… Continue reading U.S. Junk Bonds