- Bloomberg.com – Coronavirus May Drag China GDP Down to 4.5% in First Quarter
Bloomberg Economics’ model sees slowing from 6% last quarter
Virus fallout could knock 0.1 point from U.S. and euro area
China’s economy may grow just 4.5% this quarter, down from 6% in the prior three months, if the coronavirus inflicts a severe yet temporary impact on output, according to Bloomberg Economics. Such a slowdown would be 1.4 percentage points beneath the forecast made before the outbreak of the virus which is now threatening to hurt demand and supply chains in China and beyond, economists Chang Shu, Jamie Rush and Tom Orlik wrote in the report, which was published on Thursday.
- The Financial Times – Goldman warns of coronavirus ‘spillover’ to US economy
US GDP growth is set to take a hit this year as the effects of a coronavirus-driven slowdown in China ripple across international markets, according to Goldman Sachs. Economists at the bank said they anticipate a 0.4 percentage point drag on US annualised growth during the current quarter, on the back of a halving of tourism from China and a knock to the country’s imports of US goods. Goldman expects US growth to rebound in the second quarter once travel restrictions are eased, leaving full-year growth down around half a percentage point.
- The Financial Times – Russia closes China land border to prevent spread of coronavirus
First case of person-to-person transmission in US confirmed as infection rate continues to rise
Russia has ordered the closure of its huge land border with China as Moscow scrambles to prevent the deadly coronavirus infection spreading from its southern neighbour. There have been no confirmed cases of the respiratory illness in Russia but Vladimir Putin’s government is anxious to prevent the virus from crossing a land border that stretches for more than 4,000km. Moscow has already blocked Chinese tour groups from entering the country.
- Time Magazine – Coronavirus Grounds Flights to China From 3 Continents. How Scared Should Travelers Be?
Airlines in Europe, Asia and North America are cancelling flights to and from China as the novel coronavirus, which originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has infected at least a few thousand people in China and dozens beyond its borders.
- The Financial Times – Coronavirus cases in China exceed Sars as public anger rises
US warns citizens not to travel to China after WHO declares global emergency
At a press conference on Friday Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s chief executive, said the territory would extend school closures until at least March 2 and that civil servants would work from home to reduce the chance of spreading the infection. She appealed to the private sector to reduce the need for commuting to work. The rapid spread of the virus has fuelled discontent over the Communist party’s management of the outbreak, especially claims that local authorities concealed information on the disease in the early weeks of the epidemic. The government is considering electronic tracking bracelets to track people returning from Hubei who would need to undergo home isolation.