Q1 2019 Earnings Season Now Underway

Below are the last set of earnings estimates from Wall Street as official reports start flooding in.

All these are blended charts.  They start as the median of 500 estimates and as reports are released, the estimate is replaced with actual results.  In the cast of Q1 2019 below, there are only a handful of actual results in this series so far.

As the chart shows, expectations are for a decline across the board.  Remember that about 70% of the companies will beat estimates so this will bounce higher.  However, the average bounce is less than 4%, so should this quarter see an average bounce, it should end with declines across the board.

 

Q1 2019 earnings (green) are shown below. Q2 2019 earnings (orange) are expected to rise just 0.22%. Both of these trends continue to march lower.

An earnings recession is often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. While Q2 growth projections are not yet negative, there is still plenty of time for analysts to lower their estimates.

The next chart shows the same format as above but for revenues.  They are also in a downtrend and at a multi-month low.

So, both earnings and revenues forecasts for 2019 are not good and are continuing to fall.

For the full year, 2019 S&P 500 earnings growth (blue) is expected to grow at just 4.40%. Similar declines can be seen in ex-energy (red), ex-tech (orange) and ex-financial (green) earnings projections.

The next chart is the same format as above but for revenue.  It is also falling and at a multi-month low.

Company earnings guidance about the future is shown below. It has been falling for nine months and is poised to turn lower for the first time in two years.