Samples


We offer the following samples of our work. You can click on the links at right to view samples from a particular category.

Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

Open Charts of the Week

Topics Covered This Week Include:

  • Commitments of Traders Update – New Format Now Available!
  • Time To Start Watching ADP?
  • Time To Start Watching ADP? – 2
  • A Look At The Upcoming FOMC Meeting
  • Equities Pricing In Strong Consumer And Govt Spending
  • A Final Look At Q4 2016 Earnings Growth
  • A Final Look At Q4 2016 Revenue Growth
  • Company Guidance Is Now Negative
  • S&P 500 P/E Ratios
  • Stocks Are No Longer Correlated To One Another
  • Crude Oil And Energy ETF Flows Diverge
  • Betting On Commodities
  • U.S. Interest Rates – Uncertainty & Ultra-tight Trading Ranges
  • Central Bank Balance Sheets
  • Bond Market Sentiment Update
  • Bond Market Sentiment Update – 2
  • An Updated Look At Credit Spreads
  • An Updated Look At Gas Prices

LT Outlook: ” The “Inflation Adjusted” DJIA Back to 1800

 

Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

Open Charts of the Week

Topics Covered This Week Include:

  • Why Is The Market Rallying?
  • Why Is The Market Rallying? – 2
  • Did The G-7 Panic About The Carry Trade?
  • Which Measure Do You Prefer: Core vs. Headline
  • The Treasury Will Sell Its MBS Holdings
  • Japan’s CDS Soars
  • The PIIGS
  • The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet
  • Money Market Mutual Funds
  • Measures Of Debt
  • Retail Gas Prices
  • Federal Funds Futures: Large Speculators Liquidating Longs

Long Term Outlook

  • The Cumulative Total Return Of U.S. Equities From 1802 to 2011
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

Open Charts of the Week

Topics Covered This Week Include:

  • Why Crude Oil Prices Are Now Above $100/Barrel
  • Crude Oil Mid-Continent Dislocation Returns
  • TIPS’ Forecasting Record Still Better Than Economists’
  • Betting On Metals
  • Declining Carry Trade Again A Warning To Global Equities
  • Russian Markets Facing Rising Inflation
  • Carry Into Filipino Markets Fading
  • Thailand Turns Lower As Carry Fades
  • Korean Markets Avoid Damage From Rising Short-Term Rates
  • Carry Trades Into Indonesia Slowing
  • India Fights Inflation
  • Core Versus Headline Inflation
  • The Fed/Bread Spread
  • Currency Carry And Higher-Risk Bonds
  • European Currencies And Cross-Rates: The Mess Continues
  • The Yuan And U.S. Inflation: How RV2 Led QE2
  • Yuan’s Impact On CPI/PPI Sub-Indices
  • Coupon Yield Curve Returns In A Flattening Yield Curve
  • Mutual Fund Flows
  • Stock Market Capitalization As A % of Nominal GDP
  • Cotton Futures: Swap Dealers Shedding Long Positions

Long Term Outlook

  • LT Look: Case-Shiller Nominal Home Price Index Back to 1890
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

Open Charts of the Week

Topics Covered This Week Include:

  • The State Of The Economy
  • What Does The First Week Of Trading Tell Us?
  • What Does The First Month Of Trading Tell Us?
  • Are Mutual Fund Investors Switching To ETFs?
  • Are Mutual Fund Investors Switching To ETFs? – 2
  • Are Mutual Fund Investors Switching To ETFs? – 3
  • December Total Return Review: 2010 Total Return Notes
  • Real Interest Rates And Prospective Returns As 2011 Begins
  • U.S. Stocks Closing Valuation Gap
  • Mutual Fund Flows Update
  • Contribution of VIX To U.S. Equities Increasingly Negative
  • Equity Volatility: No Exuberance In Evidence
  • 10yr Tsy Futures: Large Speculators Add To Short Positions

Long Term Outlook

  • Moody’s Interest Rates
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

Open Charts of the Week

Topics Covered This Week Include:

  • Are Rates Rising For The Wrong Reasons?
  • More on Inflation Expectations
  • Muni Update
  • Capital Gains And The Deficit
  • Hedge Fund Returns 1998 – Current
  • A Few More Interesting Charts On Hedge Funds
  • ETF Assets Update
  • European Borrowing Costs Threaten Lower Equity Returns
  • European Short-Term Rates In Bearish Steepening
  • PIIGS
  • Hedging Non-EMU Bonds: The Euro Remains Preferred
  • Comments On Gold And Gold-Linked Equities
  • Rising Gold Still Relatively Neutral For U.S. Equities
  • Eurodollar Futures: Commercials Cover Short Positions

Long Term Outlook

  • Total Receipts (Taxes) To GNP/GDP
Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

Open Charts of the Week

Topics Covered This Week Include:

  • Is China Responsible For The Divergence In FNM & FRE?
  • Is China Responsible For The Divergence In FNM & FRE? – 2
  • Ireland Keeps Widening
  • Sovereign CDS Costs Not A Matter Of Immediate Concern
  • Comparative U.S.-German Long-Term Note Yields Revisited
  • U.S. Equities’ Negative Correlation With The Yen Remains
  • The Latest On The Double Dip And The Markets
  • Owners’ Equivalent Rent: An Update
  • TIPS Breakeven Factors Do Not Show Deflation Concern
  • Do TIPS Share FOMC’s Deflation Fear?
  • Livestock And Relative Food Price Inflation
  • Relative Financial Stock Performance During Bernanke Era
  • Size-Dependent Value And Growth Relative Valuations
  • The Euro Is Climbing Its Wall Of Worry
  • Productivity And Employment
  • Revisiting Prospective Net Treasury Risk And Return
  • Rising Gold Relatively Neutral For U.S. Equities
  • Extreme Price Change Frequency Rising For LT Bonds
  • Different Yield Curve Measures And The Taylor Rule
  • Partial Contribution Of Yield Curve To U.S. Equities Negative
  • Revisiting Comparative Carries Into Indonesia
  • Ethanol: The Gift That Keeps On Taking
  • Canadian Dollar: Large Specs Rebuilding Net Long Positions
  • 2 Yr T-Note Futures: Small Traders Carry The Torch For Shorts

Long Term Outlook

  • The CRB Index and LT Interest Rates Back to 1790
Posted in Charts of the Week, Public Appearances, Samples

Open Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
Topics Covered This Week Include:

  • QE 1A
  • The Federal Reserve’s Holdings Of Government Securities
  • Big Owners Of Government Securities
  • Should We Worry About Deflation?
  • Owners’ Equivalent Rent: An Update
  • Economic Indicators That Lead vs. Coincident
  • ECRI – Slowdown or Double Dip?
  • Economic Indicators That Lead
  • Do Stocks Predict Recessions?
  • Explaining Company Guidance
  • Does Company Guidance LEAD The Economy?
  • Does Company Guidance LEAD The Stock Market?
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week

    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Bank Funding – The Next Issue For European Banks
    • Gulf of Mexico Rigs Continue To Plummet
    • Global Petroleum Inventories
    • Case Shiller Update
    • OER Opens A Window On A Societal Change
    • Owners’ Equivalent Rent: An Update
    • The Deficit
    • Foreigners Purchase $910 Billion Of U.S. Assets In Past Year
    • Short-Term Interest Rates: When Low Is Not Low Enough
    • Wheat Price Unlikely To Increase Relative Food Inflation
    • Net Inflation Expectations Peaked In Advance Of Gold’s Highs To-Date
    • Commodity Indices Offer Poor Inflation And Currency Protection
    • Commodity-Linked Equities Remain A Dollar, Not A Commodity Trade
    • U.S. Equities’ Negative Correlation With The Japanese Yen
    • S&P 100 Daily Range Trends Over Past Year
    • Goldman Sachs Still Seen At Risk
    • BP: Past The Risk Of Ruin?
    • Assessment Of August 10th FOMC Meeting
    • Partial Contribution of VIX To U.S. Equities Approaching Zero
    • Short-Term Forward Rates In U.S. & Japan
    • Cheaper Yen Not Sparking Carry Trades
    • Revisiting Month-End Duration Extensions For American Bonds
    • Gold Futures: Funds Are Liquidating Longs

    Long Term Outlook

    • Long-Term Interest Rates Back To 1790
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week

    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Is The Crowd Too Bearish?
    • S&P 500 Drawdown
    • Are U.S. Stocks Wildly Undervalued Given Earnings Estimates?
    • Revisiting Size-Dependent Value And Growth Relative Valuations
    • Revisiting S&P 500 & 3-Mth Treasury Bill Comparative Returns
    • Equities Still Correlated Positively To Higher Short-Term Yields
    • Measuring Gold’s Decline
    • Manufacturing Jobs – Do They Matter Anymore?
    • ISM Manufacturing Index’ Reversal Not Deterministic
    • Currency Reserves
    • ECRI Falls Again
    • Chances Of A Double Dip Recession
    • Refis Boom Again, Purchases Fall To New Lows
    • R.I.P TALF
    • Swap Spreads Still Signaling Narrower Corp. Credit Spreads
    • Savings Rates And Asset Prices During The Keynesian Thermidor
    • Corporate Yield Curves After The Bull Run
    • Comparative Utility Yield Curves
    • Comparative Financial Yield Curves Argue For Defensive Stance
    • Does LIBOR Matter Anymore?
    • U.K. Real Yields And Inflation Breakevens Revisited
    • Asset Returns Differentiation At The G-20 Junction
    • Partial Contribution Of 10-Yr Note Yields Decreasingly Positive For Equities
    • Integrated Oils’ Relative Performance & Crude Oil Prices
    • Revisiting Index Options Settlement’s Risk
    • The Upside Bias Of Quadruple Witching Remains
    • 10-Year Treasury Note Futures: No Trend-Followers Need Apply

    Long Term Outlook

    LT Interest Rates & YoY Change In CPO Back to 1801

    Posted in Charts of the Week, Public Appearances, Samples

    Open Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Almost $1Trillion In Losses
    • Banks Are Lending!
    • Measuring Credit Creation
    • Measuring The Size of Securitization – 1
    • Measuring The Size of Securitization -2
    • The Credit Crisis: The Largest Outlay In American History
    • The Federal Reserve
    • It Is All The Same Trade
    • The Stock Market Decline Now Rivals The 1930s
    • Credit Spreads Are At Their Worst Levels
    • Muni Spreads – Still At Panic Levels
    • Agency Spreads And Foreign Buying
    • Mortgage Rates And Spreads
    • Medicated Market – Commercial Paper
    • Medicated Market – LIBOR And The TED Spread
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week

    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Banking Losses And Capital Raised – Summary
    • Banking Losses And Capital Raised – Detail
    • The Credit Crisis: The Largest Outlay In American History
    • Significant Moves Before Labor Day 2008
    • Significant Moves After Labor Day 2008
    • Known TARP Money Awarded – 1
    • Known TARP Money Awarded – 2
    • Known TARP Money Awarded – 3
    • Madoff Losses Update
    • Federal Funds Futures: Good Resistance At 100
      Long Term Outlook
    • The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index Back To 1749
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Public Appearances, Samples

    Open Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Summary/Conclusion – The Beginning Of The End
    • The Credit Crisis: The Largest Outlay In American History
    • Almost $1 Trillion In Losses
    • Three Months To Remember
    • The Federal Reserves Exploding Balance Sheet
    • The Federal Reserves Exploding Discount Window
    • The Economy Stopped In October
    • It Is All The Same Trade
    • ABX/CMBX Get “TARPed”
    • Medicated Market – LIBOR And The TED Spread
    • Medicated Market – Commercial Paper
    • Repo Still Not Healthy
    • Agency Spreads – All About The Chinese
    • Mortgage Spreads – Not Getting Worse
    • Muni Spreads – Still At Panic Levels
    • Credit Spreads Are At Their Worst Levels
    • Stock Market Decline Now Rivals 2000 to 2002
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • What Does A “Medicated” LIBOR Measure?
    • Are CDX Prices Pointing To Health In The Credit Markets?
    • Credit Spreads Are Still At Crisis Levels
    • Distressed Debt
    • Munis vs. Treasuries
    • Sovereign Credit Risks: With A Little Help From Our Friends
    • Sovereign CDS Costs’ Impact On equities And Currencies
    • Are E&P Stocks Calling An Energy Commodity Bottom?
    • Stock Market Capitalization as a Percentage of Nominal GDP
    • Total Return Review Update
    • Revisiting The Stock-Treasury Relationship After The Collapse
    • Corporate Yield Curves Fifteen Months Into The Credit Crisis
    • Implications For Long-Term Treasury Returns
    • The Baltic Dry Index
    • Gasoline, Productivity And Inflation After The Downturn
    • Metals Led Mining Equities’ Relative Performance Lower
    • Ethanol Economics, Hedging & VeraSun Energy’s Bankruptcy
    • The Federal Reserve And Crude Oil After The Collapse
    • Crude Oil Futures: Large Specs Should Stand And Be Counted
      Long Term Outlook
    • Federal Funds Rate and YoY Change in Core CPI Back to 1958
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Fannie And Freddie
    • The Federal Reserve And Comical Ideas
    • Effective Versus Target Rate
    • European Financials Week
    • Housing Troubles
    • Update on CMBX
    • Primary Dealers Activity
    • Different Tricks For Different VIX
    • Crude’s Fourth Bear Market During The Bull Market
    • Lower Gold Still Not Positive For U.S. Equities
    • Implications Of Rising Japanese Sovereign Credit Risk
    • Did Commodity Break Affect Global Equity Returns?
    • Revisiting Employment Costs And Consumer Prices
    • How Much Gasoline Do We Use?
    • Market Cap to GDP Update
    • Sovereign Credit Risks Remain Elevated
    • Municipal Excess Returns Over Treasuries
    • Gold: Large Speculators Keep Dancing After Music Stops

    Long Term Outlook

    • Short Term Interest Rates Back to 1831
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Financial Losses Update and Perspective
    • Capital Raised and Wall Street Job Losses
    • The FOMC Is Having Problems Hitting Its Target
    • Second Comparative Assessment Of April 30th FOMC Meeting
    • Was Last Week A “Sea Change” For LIBOR?
    • Eurodollars, The TED Spread And The Turning Point
    • Update On Commercial Paper
    • High Yield Corporate Bonds
    • Fixed-Income Implied Volatility Remains Relatively High
    • Ethanol Economics Improving
    • China’s Plunge
    • Revisiting The Yuan And U.S. Inflation
    • European Volatility And Swap Spreads
    • Real Yields And Inflation Breakevens In The U.K.
    • Yen Futures: Large Speculators Remain Long
    • ETF Assets
    • Breaking Down ETF Assets
    • StreetTracks Gold Trust

    Long Term Outlook

    • Yearly Average Of The CRB Back To 1450
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • What Indicators Will Tell Us When The Bear Market Ends?- 1
    • What Indicators Will Tell Us When The Bear Market Ends?- 2
    • Stocks Continue To Diverge From Credit
    • Housing Prices Are Not Bottoming
    • Comparative Assessment Of The March 18th FOMC Meeting
    • Is CMBX The New ABX? – 1
    • Is CMBX The New ABX? – 2
    • ABX Indices Are Still Getting Worse
    • Producer Price Inflation
    • Tips Breakeven Are Moving Higher
    • Emerging And US Market, Are They Decoupling?
    • The Bond Market – Record Leverage And Bets On Rates
    • Dealer Leverage Soars
    • Total Banking System Losses
    • Hedge Funds, Another 25 Standard Deviation Event*
    • Revisiting Natural Gas And Inflation
    • What Is Behind The Commodity Surge
    • Mexican Peso: ¡Hedge Funds Are Buying The Country

    Long Term Outlook

    • Long-Term Rates Back To 1790
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • 3-Month GBP & US LIBOR Rates
    • The Federal Reserve Takes A Stand
    • Relative Stock-Bond Valuation
    • Update On Commercial Paper
    • Credit Spread Update
    • Update On The ABX Indices
    • Update On The CMBX Indices
    • Current Account Deficit
    • Chinese Stock Market
    • What Is the Real Cause Of The Credit Crisis
    • Measuring Nationwide Home Prices
    • Measuring Housing Affordability
    • Natural Gas Futures: Hedgers Look For Seasonality To Prevail

    Long Term Outlook

    • What Did The Federal Reserve Really Accomplish?
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Updating The Effective Rate
    • Effective Federal Funds Divergence Is Ineffective Policy
    • Asset-Backed Commercial Paper
    • Volatile T-Bills, Jumping Loan Growth
    • Mapping The Path To Libor Stress
    • The Fed Continues To Pump In Liquidity
    • Bond Issuance Updated
    • Volatility Update
    • Measuring The Stock Market’s Pain
    • Financial Stocks
    • Updating Mortgage Rates
    • Measuring The Public’s Breakeven Point
    • Using The Yield Curve To Predict Recessions
    • Corporate Yield Curves After The Credit Crunch
    • Long Term Futures: Large Speculators Play For Breakout
    • Ten-Year TIPS Breakeven Rate of Inflation

    Long Term Outlook

    • Long Term Rates And CPI since 1914
    Posted in Charts of the Week, Samples

    Open Charts of the Week
    Topics Covered This Week Include:

    • Understanding the Subprime Panic – 1
    • Understanding the Subprime Panic – 2
    • Understanding the Subprime Panic – 3
    • Credit Markets
    • Deals Continue To Drive The Stock Market
    • Looking At Chinese Stocks
    • Chinese Holdings of U.S. Assets
    • The S&P 500 Leads The Federal Budget Deficit
    • Relative Asset Returns And The Euro
    • Stocks And Volatility
    • S&P 500 Industry Group Impact Of Natural Gas
    • The State of Crude Oil
    • Core CPI versus Headline CPI
    • Chinese Holdings of U.S. Assets
    • Foreigners Buy Record Amounts of Corporates and Equities
    • Long Treasury Bond Futures
    • Ten-Year / Two-Year Note Yield Curve Spread

    Long Term Outlook

    • Yearly Average Of The CRB Back to 1450