Updating the Market’s Signal to Central Banks

  • CNBC – Fed is in denial about ‘persistent’ inflation, Wall Street forecaster Jim Bianco warns

    Market forecaster Jim Bianco expects inflation’s intensity to catch up with central bank policymakers worldwide, including the Federal Reserve. The fallout could make stocks less attractive, and knock them off record highs. “Inflation is persistent and you’ve got to start thinking about moving your policies more aggressively towards tightening,” the Bianco Research President told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday. “None of these central banks want to do that. They’re in denial that the markets are telling them that.” Bianco points to trading activity in bonds. “What’s happened in the markets in the last couple of weeks is short-term interest rates have moved up and moved up a lot especially in countries like Australia and New Zealand,” he said. “They’re saying that you’re behind the curve.”

Comment

As we noted above, short rates continue to send a signal that central banks are behind the curve.

 

 

Even though the following short rates have pulled back more than those above, we still see them as being in an uptrend.

 

 

The fed funds futures market is still pricing in the first rate hike in June.

 

 

A second hike is priced in this fall.

 

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