The Fed sees more work to be done on the battle against inflation and is likely to push back on the easing of financial conditions. But how? They are almost done hiking.... Read More
For the last few decades we have been in a low interest rate environment where deficit spending would not cause major issues. However, a 40-year high in inflation prompted the Fed to tighten monetary policy at a fast pace. Higher rates mean the cost of servicing U.S. debt will follow higher. ... Read More
As part of the planned transition away from LIBOR, the CME will convert any remaining Eurodollar positions to SOFR positions on April 14. SOFR futures recently surpassed Eurodollar futures as the world's largest interest rate futures contract.... Read More
Flows follow performance, except for when they don't. Cathie Wood's investors seem willing to ride out market losses even as they have lost over 60% of their investment in just over a year. ... Read More
At one point in time Tesla was worth more than all other auto companies combined. Their fall over the past fourteen months puts them closer to Toyota's market cap.... Read More
Things have changed in China. We don't yet know exactly how. But to assume the country will immediately return to 2019 norms and its economy will rebound immediately may prove overly optimistic.... Read More
Everyone's consensus call is a mild recession in 2023, and market participants seem eager to accept the consensus call. Given this view, where do valuations stand?... Read More
Japan's inflation rate is increasing for the first time in a generation, but salaries are not rising. Japanese government bond yields are moving higher, but struggling against the upper band of the Bank of Japan's yield curve control. If rates break through or yield curve control ends, the impact could be felt worldwide.... Read More
Chairman Powell still worries a big rally in asset prices would lead to increased spending and higher inflation.... Read More
Jim Bianco: Watching Bloomberg TV, and they are repeating the same mantra as everyone else. That is stating overwhelming consensus views with a tone in their voice like they are telling you something unique. Reality … inflation has peaked. That... Read More
Redfin's alternative measures of the housing market continue to show a slowdown in the crazy conditions of the last year.... Read More
Historically, the first trading day and week of the year are volatile for a range of assets.... Read More
The secular trend in 10-year yields is higher and could stay that way for many years.... Read More
China is not yet showing signs of reopening, despite announcements that zero-Covid restrictions are being lifted. This matters for Wall Street as a Chinese rebound is central to the 2023 consensus views of a rebound in raw commodities, a surge in finished goods that will depress inflation leading to the Fed pivoting, and risk markets soaring in 2H 2023.... Read More
