Despite many concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation and rating downgrade, this past week's Treasury auctions were solid.... Read More
Indirect bidders, often considered a proxy for foreign central banks, shied away from this past week's Treasury auctions.... Read More
As foreign central banks and the Federal Reserve own a smaller portion of the U.S. Treasury market, price-sensitive buyers take on increased importance to bond price discovery.... Read More
Official TIC data shows China has steadily shed their exposure to the dollar by reducing Treasury holdings over the past decade. However, some of their holdings are likely being held in other custodial countries.... Read More
As foreign central banks and the Federal Reserve own a smaller portion of the U.S. Treasury market, price-sensitive buyers take on increased importance to bond price discovery.... Read More
28% of developed market sovereign debt now yields more than 4%.... Read More
The portion of the high-yield universe made up by the riskiest bonds has dwindled since 2009.... Read More
As foreign central banks and the Federal Reserve own a smaller portion of the U.S. Treasury market, price-sensitive buyers take on increased importance to bond price discovery.... Read More
The TBAC expects bills to make up more than 20% of issuance for a bit longer, but recognizes increased coupon issuance may be necessary.... Read More
T-bills are accounting for a rising percentage of outstanding debt in the U.S., surpassing the 20% limit typically advocated by the TBAC.... Read More
Bond markets staged a big rally in November, led by long-duration assets. The current perception driving the rally is that the Fed is done hiking, inflation is beaten, and a recession is coming. We argue this might be an overly bullish stance.... Read More
T-bills are accounting for a rising percentage of outstanding debt in the U.S., surpassing the 20% limit typically advocated by the TBAC.... Read More
In a year when bond bulls desperately search for reasons their outlook has not worked out, U.S. Treasury supply has offered a convenient scapegoat.... Read More
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, bullish sentiment has been scarce. We have argued that the bond bull market ended in 2020 and we have entered a period of rising rates, yet there continues to be a directional skew or "hope" for lower rates. ... Read More
58% of developed market sovereign debt now yields more than 4%.... Read More
T-bills are accounting for a rising percentage of outstanding debt in the U.S., pushing against the 20% limit typically advocated by the TBAC.... Read More
The U.S Treasury Department releases data on foreign ownership of Treasuries. The data is current through May 2023.... Read More
Prior to 2009, primary dealers typically bought 60%-70% of any given 10-year note auction. Now they are typically taking down closer to 18% of an auction.... Read More
The average maturity of all Treasury debt is at its highest level on record.... Read More
Direct bidders' notched their highest participation rate since 2014 in the most recent 10-year auction. This is taking place as the Fed and foreigners are reducing exposure to Treasuries.... Read More