Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
Updating Our Bond Outlook: Watching the Most Important Relationship in the Bond Market The most important relationship in the bond market is the growth rate of nominal GDP relative to the current level of interest rates. We believe nominal GDP is...
Understanding the Financial Markets in 1999 Part 5 – The “Bad” Bull Market An unusual situation has been unfolding in the last several months. Falling interest rates (a.k.a. – a bull market) has been bad and rising interest...
Understanding the Financial Markets in 1999 Part 4 – Is the S&P 500 the “Engine” of World Growth? Why did all financial markets nearly melt-down last summer/fall? We believe it was not due to LTCM or Russia, but because the...
Understanding the Financial Markets in 1999 Part 3 – The Stock/Bond Relationship: Is NOT a De-coupling In this commentary we combined the themes detailed in parts 1 (nominal GDP is a better than inflation to compare interest rates against) and...
Understanding the Financial Markets in 1999 Part 2 – What Drives Nominal GDP? In part 1 we argued that nominal GDP is a better measure for determining the proper level of interest rates than inflation alone. In this commentary we detail our...
Understanding the Financial Markets in 1999 Part 1 – Why Economic Growth Matters to Bonds – Regardless of Inflation Most economists believe that inflation is the only thing that moves interest rates. While it is important, we believe that...
Seasonality in the Financial Markets A look at the yearly trading patterns in stocks and bonds. Also, a discussion as to why these patterns exist.
A “Bad” Bull Market With The Fed’s third easing in less than two months, stocks should do well (“don’t fight the Fed”). Bonds, however, many have problems. If stocks are roaring ahead, unleveraged money will not...
A New Era In The Relationship Between Stocks And Bonds? Part 4: Can the S&P 500 “Save the World?” All markets are now trading like the S&P 500. So, the recent Fed eases should help push stock higher and give the credit markets the...
A New Era in the Relationship Between Stocks and Bonds? Part 3: Everything Trades Like The S&P 500, What Side Are You On? For the last several months, most markets have been following the gyrations in the S&P 500. This means there is only one...
A New Era in the Relationship Between Stocks and Bonds? Part 2: Who Is Behind This Change? Traditional fundamentals and economic indicators are having little effect in the bond market. This change is due to the recent surge of speculation in bonds...
The “Current” Bond to the “Old” Bond Spread The spread between the “current” bond and the “old” 30-year Treasury bond has widened to the highest levels in almost three years. Most believe this...