Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
Understanding the Financial Markets in 1999 Part 2 – What Drives Nominal GDP? In part 1 we argued that nominal GDP is a better measure for determining the proper level of interest rates than inflation alone. In this commentary we detail our...
Understanding the Financial Markets in 1999 Part 1 – Why Economic Growth Matters to Bonds – Regardless of Inflation Most economists believe that inflation is the only thing that moves interest rates. While it is important, we believe that...
Seasonality in the Financial Markets A look at the yearly trading patterns in stocks and bonds. Also, a discussion as to why these patterns exist.
A “Bad” Bull Market With The Fed’s third easing in less than two months, stocks should do well (“don’t fight the Fed”). Bonds, however, many have problems. If stocks are roaring ahead, unleveraged money will not...
A New Era In The Relationship Between Stocks And Bonds? Part 4: Can the S&P 500 “Save the World?” All markets are now trading like the S&P 500. So, the recent Fed eases should help push stock higher and give the credit markets the...
A New Era in the Relationship Between Stocks and Bonds? Part 3: Everything Trades Like The S&P 500, What Side Are You On? For the last several months, most markets have been following the gyrations in the S&P 500. This means there is only one...
A New Era in the Relationship Between Stocks and Bonds? Part 2: Who Is Behind This Change? Traditional fundamentals and economic indicators are having little effect in the bond market. This change is due to the recent surge of speculation in bonds...
The “Current” Bond to the “Old” Bond Spread The spread between the “current” bond and the “old” 30-year Treasury bond has widened to the highest levels in almost three years. Most believe this...
A New Era in the Relationship Between Stocks and Bonds? Part 1: How Dramatic Is This Change? The relationship between the stock market and the bond market has undergone its most dramatic change in history.
The Markets Are About To Get A Lot Of Certainty The markets hate uncertainty. However, they are about to get a lot of certainty with the release of the independent counsels report. No matter what it says, the speculation about this report will end...
How Much Wealth Has The Stock Market Destroyed? From the high point of wealth creation in May of 1998, domestic equity mutual fund holders have seen 43% of their wealth disappear in the last few weeks. Economically speaking, if the stock market does...
Why The Fed Funds Contract Matters An explanation as to why the fed funds futures contract is a good measure of Fed policy.