Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
A Primer on the Convexity Trade: What it is, Who does it, and Why If you don’t trade in mortgages or agency securities, why should you care about what Fannie or Freddie is doing? Simply, we believe the convexity trade is the primary driver of...
Part 2: Swaps Spreads: They Are More Important Than You Think Is the Market “Sensing” a Financial Crisis is Coming? Audio It is very rare for all markets to trade with a high degree of correlation to a slumping S&P 500. When it...
Is the Market Responding to the Accounting Scandals Rationally? A Look at “Reported” vs. “Operating” Earnings for the S&P 500 Audio The market appears to be acting rationally when it comes to the accounting scandals....
The Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey: As Close to Unanimous as You’ll See Fully 93% (51 of 55) of all economists surveyed are looking for interest rates to be higher by the end of the year. This is far and away the most one-sided survey...
April 2002 Presentation Package (352K) Presentation package used for speech at Grant’s Spring Investment Conference in New York City, April 23, 2002.
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update Tables updated through January 31, 2002 with data released March 28, 2002. Comments on U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds, U.S Government Agency Securities, U. S. Corporate Bonds, U.S. Equities...
The Economic Cycle – Why it Might be Shorter than You Think Audio Slowly but surely, economic numbers are being released which suggest the current recession has either ended or is coming to an end. Which indicators will be useful in determining...
Inflation Watch Update The favorable inflation numbers appear to be a function of falling energy prices. Take out energy prices and the inflation picture is not nearly as favorable.
Inflation Watch Update The attached tables update inflation rates through November 2001.
The Enron/Argentinean Crises Audio Now that Enron has filed for the largest corporate bankruptcy ever and the Argentina crisis is widening, how will the financial markets react?
November 2001 Presentation Package (357K) Presentation package used in a conference call.
Special Total Return Review Tables showing the performance of many different indices, commodities and currencies since September 11. Also highlighted is the performance of the stock market and how it is consistent with an impending economic recovery.