Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
A Primer on the Fed Model Is the stock market overvalued or undervalued? One way we can answer this question is by using the Fed’s valuation model for stocks, comparing the earnings yield of an index (the inverse of the P/E ratio) to the yield...
Is Fannie Mae’s Duration Gap Becoming an Issue Again? With only two days left in the month (year) and very thin markets, any further drop in interest rates could get Fannie Mae’s hedging operation active and potentially produce an...
Has Fannie Mae Become a “Volatility Time Bomb?” We believe Fannie Mae is a volatility time bomb. Once interest rates move, based on the current market/economic situation at that time, and Fannie Mae’s duration gap gets close to...
Mutual Fund Flows Update Tables updated through October 31, 2002 with data released November 26, 2002. Comments on Stock Funds, Bond Funds and Hybrid Funds.
Fannie’s Duration Gap Update The attention Fannie Mae’s duration gap has garnered highlights how difficult it is to hedge this massive portfolio. We believe they have no choice but to incur interest rate risk. This is a nice way of saying...
Examples of Mutual Funds Outflows Not Beginning Until The Public’s Breakeven Point Is Crossed For years we have been tracking the public’s average purchase price, or their “breakeven” point, for mutual fund holdings. It has...
Inflation Watch Update The attached tables update inflation rates through September 2002.
Mutual Fund Flows Update Are Equity Levels Below The Public’s Breakeven Point? Decision Time For Stock Fund Investors The public’s unrealized profits have remained above their average cost level since October 1990. Now these profits may...
September Total Return Review The attached tables update the total returns through September. A look at the total returns of the S&P 500 on a historical basis. Just how bad is this bear market?
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update If Fannie’s duration gap announcement is the start of an education program about what Fannie and Freddie are and are not, will it lead to foreigners reassessing their Agency debt...
October 2002 Presentation Package Presentation package used in San Francisco on October 2, 2002.
Fannie Mae’s Duration Gap And Why Rates Fell In September Audio If we assume Fannie Mae’s mortgage portfolio has the characteristics of the Merrill Mortgage Master Index (how can it not – its portfolio was $740 billion in August,...